网约车与公共交通替代关系及其减排潜力研究

Substituted Relationship Between Ride-hailing and Public Transit and Emission Reduction Potential

作为广泛盛行的出行模式,网约车在一定程度上改变了人们的出行选择,使一部分原本乘坐公共交通的乘客转向选择网约车,由此造成的网约车与公共交通的替代关系对城市交通碳排放产生一定影响,有必要进行深入研究。本文使用成都市网约车订单数据,基于效用函数比较推断网约车是否有机会被公共交通替代,从OD(Origin Destination)层面分析公共交通可替代和不可替代两类出行的特征,以及城市公共交通系统的减排潜力。研究结果表明:在所有的网约车订单中,与公共交通存在潜在替代关系的占比为54.16%;出行时间和出行费用是影响乘客选择的主要因素。当公共交通出行方案为地铁单独出行或地铁行程距离占比较高时,更有可能表现为网约车与公共交通存在潜在替代关系。若公共交通有机会替代部分网约车出行,将会导致约45.59%的碳排放削减;减排量和减排潜力较大时段和区域分别是10:00-17:00以及城市中心和地铁沿线附近区域。本文研究可为政府相关部门通过实施有效手段,提升公共交通的服务水平和利用效率,进而减少城市交通系统碳排放提供决策支持。

As a popular travel mode,ride-hailing has changed people's travel choices to some extent,which makes some passengers who used to take public transit turn to ride-hailing.The resulting substituted relationship between ridehailing and public transit will have a certain impact on urban transport carbon emissions,and it is necessary to conduct in-depth research.Based on the comparison of utility functions,this paper uses the ride-hailing order data in Chengdu to infer whether the ride-hailing service has the chance to be replaced by public transit.From the OD(Origin Destination)level,this paper analyzes the characteristics of replaceable and irreplaceable trips by public transit and the emission reduction potential of the urban public transit system.The results show that 54.16%of all ride-hailing orders have a potential substituted relationship with public transit.Travel time and travel cost are the main factors that affect passengers'choices.When the public transit travel plan only includes subway travel or subway travel distance accounts for a relatively high proportion,it is more likely to show that there is a potential substituted relationship between ridehailing and public transit.If public transit has the opportunity to replace some ride-hailing trips,it will lead to a reduction of about 45.59%in carbon emissions.The periods and areas with the greatest emission reduction potential are between 10:00 and 17:00,as well as areas near urban centers and subway lines.This study can provide decision support for relevant government departments to improve the service level and utilization efficiency of public transit by implementing effective means,and thus reduce the carbon emissions of the urban transport system.