天津市历史自然灾害风险水平评估

Risk Assessment of Historical Natural Disasters in Tianjin

为深化普查数据应用、丰富历史自然灾害风险评估成果,从历史自然灾害生命价值损失的角度,以天津市16个行政区为研究对象,基于1978-2020年历史自然灾害调查数据,采用主成分分析、系统聚类等方法,构建历史自然灾害风险评估模型,评估各区域历史自然灾害风险水平及影响因素。结论表明:①天津市边缘区域历史自然灾害风险水平较高,中心区域历史自然灾害风险水平相对较低;②历史自然灾害主要作用的承灾体体现在直接经济损失、损坏房屋间数、受灾人口、农作物受灾面积等方面;③主要致灾因子在区域间表现出较明显的差异性,受台风、洪涝自然灾害影响的区域较多。

To deepen the census data applications,rich historical natural disaster risk assessment results,from the perspective of historical natural disaster loss value life,16 administrative region in Tianjin as the research object,based on the historical natural disaster survey data in 1978-2020,by adopting the method of principal component analysis,system cluster,constructing historical natural disaster risk assessment model,to evaluate the risk level and influencing factors of historical natural disasters in each region.The results show that:①the risk level of historical natural disasters in the periphery area of Tianjin is relatively high,while the risk level of historical natural disasters in the center area is relatively low.②The main disaster-bearing bodies of historical natural disasters are reflected in the direct economic losses,the number of damaged houses,the affected population and the affected area of crops,etc.③The main disaster-causing factors show obvious differences among regions,and more regions are affected by natural disasters such as typhoons and floods.