中国平衡发展水平的时序变化与空间差异——基于纵横向拉开档次法的分析

Temporal Variation and Spatial Differences of China's Balanced Development Level-Analysis Based on the Vertical and Horizontal Split Grade Method

中国经济发展的不平衡不充分制约了人民日益增长的美好生活需要。如何准确把握平衡发展内涵,分析中国平衡发展水平的时序变化与空间差异性是亟须解决的重大现实问题。基于2013—2017年间的省级面板数据,采用纵横向拉开档次法对平衡发展水平进行测度,并从整体和局部上分析平衡发展水平的时空差异。研究发现,中国平衡发展水平具有显著的区域差异,东部沿海区域远高于中部区域和西部区域;中国平衡发展水平差异总体呈现下降趋势,总体差异中区域间差异占比大于区域内差异占比,三大区域中东部区域差异最大,中部区域差异最小;中国平衡发展水平呈现显著空间正相关,具有空间集聚性。这为准确判断经济发展平衡水平提供了重要依据,而且也为如何缩小区域差异提供了政策启示。

At this stage,China's unbalanced development has restricted the people's growing needs for a better life.In order to accurately grasp the connotation of balanced development,we have to analyze the temporal variation and spatial differences of China's balanced development level in time.Based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2017,the paper used the vetical and horizontal split grade method to measure the level of balanced development,and then examine the temporal and spatial differences of balanced development level from an overall perspective and a partial perspective.The study found that,China's balanced development level had the characteristic of regional differences,and the level in the eastern coastal region was higher than that in the central and westemn regions.Generally speaking,the differences of balanced development level in China had a downward trend.Meanwhile,the proportion of inter-regional differences was more than the proportion of intra-regional differences.Considering the differences in three major regions,the easterm region had the greatest differences,while the central region had the minimum.Besides,China's balanced development level also had a significantly positive spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration.These findings provided an important basis for accurately judging the balanced development level,and policy implications for how to reduce regional differences.