收入不确定性与农村居民基本养老保险参与——基于生命周期模型的研究

Income Uncertainty and Rural Residents’Participation in Basic Pension Insurance-Study Based on the Life Cyele Model

基于三期世代交叠的生命周期模型,刻画农村居民收入不确定性对基本养老保险参与行为的影响,并利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据进行实证检验。研究发现:收入不确定性能够促进农村居民参与基本养老保险,但居民储蓄行为与参与养老保险存在替代关系,当家庭收入不确定性增大时居民的储蓄意愿更高;随着年龄的增长,收入不确定性对居民养老保险参与行为的影响存在波动性,青年时期的农村居民因受收入不确定性的影响而更愿意选择参与基本养老保险;东、西部地区以及高收入的农村居民基本养老保险参与行为更易受到收入不确定性的影响。

Based on the life cycle model of three-phase overlapping generations,this paper depicted the impact of rural residents’income uncertainty on the participative behavior of basic pension insurance,and then used the data of the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)to make an empirical test.The study found that income uncertainty could promote rural residents’participation in pension insurance,but there was a substitution relationship between residents’saving behavior and the participative behaviour of pension insurance,that was,increased household income uncertainty might lead to a stronger willingness of residents to save money.Considering to the growth of age,the impact of income uncertainty on the participative behaviour of pension insurance was fluctuant.Specificially,younger rural residents were more willing to choose to participate in basic pension insurance.The rural residents in the eastern and western regions,as well as those high-income ones,were more susceptible to income uncertainty.