生计模式分化视域下城郊农户征地预期的影响因素研究——以武汉市蔡甸区为例

The infuencing factors of suburban farmers'land expropriation expectation from the perspective of livelihood pattern differentiation:A case study of Caidian District,Wuhan City

农民盼征地是城市郊区突出的社会现象,从生计角度探究影响城郊农户征地预期的因素,为改进和完善现行征地制度提供参考。基于可持续生计框架,利用武汉市蔡甸区562户村民调查数据,分析城郊农户在渐进城市化过程中的生计模式和征地预期,采用有序Probit模型探讨不同生计模式下农户征地预期的影响因素。结果表明,城郊农户的生计模式以农工型和非农型为主,分别占55.2%和36.5%;有60.7%的受访农户盼望政府征地,近郊农户征地期望明显高于远郊家庭,农地生计依赖弱化的农工型和非农型家庭希望征地的意愿更为强烈。非农劳动力占比和承包地数量是影响城郊农户征地预期的主要因素,其中非农务工劳动力比例正向影响农工型和非农型农户的征地预期,承包地面积负向影响非农型农户的征地预期。因此,应充分考虑城郊农户的征地期望,满足其在非农就业和承包地退出补偿等方面的利益诉求,建议进一步加强对农户非农就业的支持力度,加快完善征地补偿机制。

In suburban areas,the expectation of land expropriation among farmers is a notable social phenomenon.Examining the factors that influence the expectation from a farmers livelihood perspective can provide a reference for improving the existing land expropriation system.Based on a survey data of 562 farmers in Caidian District,Wuhan City,this paper employs the sustainable livelihood framework to analyze suburban farmers'livelihood patterns and land expropriation expectations during urbanization.In addition,this paper also adopts the ordered probit model to examine the influencing factors of farmers'land expropriation expectations under different livelihood patterns.Results show that livelihood patterns of suburban farmers are predominantly agro-industrial and non-agricultural,accounting for 55.2%and 36.5%,respectively;60.7%of the farmers interviewed expect their land to be expropriated and periurban farmers'expectations of land expropriation are significantly higher than those of distant farmers;agro-industrial and non-agricultural households with less dependence on agricultural land for living have a stronger desire for land expropriation.The land expropriation expectations of farmers in suburban areas are primarily influenced by two factors:the proportion of the non-farm labor force and the amount of contracted land.The ratio of the non-farm labor force has a positive impact on the land expropriation expectation of both farm-workers and non-farm type farmers.Conversely,the area of contracted land has a negative impact on the land expropriation expectation of non-farm type farmers.Therefore,the government should fully consider the land expropriation expectations of suburban farmers and meet their demand for non-farm employment and compensation for the withdrawal of contracted land.This paper suggests strengthening support for the non-agricultural job of farmers and accelerating the improvement of the compensation mechanism for land expropriation.