中国新一代信息技术投资能否绕过“索洛悖论”——基于“宽带中国”的准自然实验

Can China's New Generation of Information Technology Investment Bypass the"Solow Paradox":A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on"Broadband China"

我国经济正处于工业化向城市化的关键转型期,新一代信息技术投资能否承担城市化阶段生产率提升的重任?本文基于2009—2019年中国283座城市的面板数据,利用“宽带中国”战略试点这一外生政策冲击,深入考察了新一代信息技术投资对城市生产率的影响及内在机制。研究发现,新一代信息技术投资有效提升了城市生产率,否认了“信息技术生产率悖论”在中国的存在,此结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后仍成立。新一代信息技术投资可通过优化生产要素配置、提升技术创新能力、推动产业融合发展进而促进城市生产率提高。在此基础之上,本文进一步探究影响新一代信息技术投资有效性的相关因素,研究表明一座城市的人力资本水平、经济服务化水平、市场化水平越高,其生产率提升效应越明显。因此,应鼓励引导新一代信息技术投资,全面部署新型基础设施建设;加速推进创新型人力资本积累,为城市发展新一代信息技术提供人才支撑;全面深化市场化改革,以市场之手助力新一代信息技术提高要素配置效率。

China's economy is in the critical transition period from industrialization to urbanization.Can the new generation of information technology investment bear the heavy responsibility of productivity improvement in the urbanization stage?Based on the panel data of 283 cities in China from 2009 to 2019,this paper uses the exogenous policy impact of the"Broadband China"strategic pilot to deeply investigate the impact of the new generation of information technology investment on urban productivity and the internal mechanism.The research finds that the new generation of IT investment effectively improves urban productivity and denies the existence of"IT productivity paradox"in China.This conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.The new generation of information technology investment can promote the improvement of urban productivity by optimizing the allocation of production factors,improving technological innovation ability,and promoting industrial integration.On this basis,this paper further explores the relevant factors affecting the effectiveness of the ncw generation of information technology investment.The research shows that the higher human capital level,economic service level and market level a city has,the more obvious its productivity improvement effect is.Therefore,we should encourage and guide investment in the new generation of information technology,and fully deploy the construction of new infrastructure.We should accelerate the accumulation of innovative human capital and provide talent support for urban development and new generation information technology.We will comprehensively deepen market-oriented reform and help the new generation of information technology improve the efficiency of factor allocation with the hand of the market.