省会城市行政边界扩张对省域经济增长的影响

Influence of the expansion of the provincial capital's administrative boundary on the provincial economic growth

选取1997—2018年全国27个省(区)的面板数据,运用合成控制法以反事实分析的方式探讨了2000年后部分省会城市行政边界扩张对全省(区)经济增长的影响。实证结果表明,样本省会城市行政边界扩张没有起到提高全省(区)人均GDP的作用;对于经济规模占全省(区)份额本就很高的省会城市而言,通过行政手段做大其规模反倒对全省(区)人均GDP产生显著抑制作用,且作用强度随时间呈不断扩大趋势。因此,各省(区)在制定空间治理政策时应结合省会城市现有经济体量,注重培育多个中心城市,避免造成“一市独大”抑制全省(区)经济增长的弊端。

As a direct means of a"strong provincial capital"strategy,the administrative boundary expansion of provincial capital cities has attracted wide attention in recent years.In general,local governments increase their economic aggregate by developing organizational boundaries and have high enthusiasm for the expansion policy of administrative boundaries of provincial capitals.But China has been cautious about the procedure,given the risks involved and the uncertainty over its effects.The different policy considerations of the central and local governments put forward realistic demands for the performance evaluation of the administrative expansion of provincial capitals.Scientific assessments of the effect of organizational boundary expansion on provincial economic development can provide a sufficient basis for formulating relevant policies.Based on the panel data of 27 provinces in China from 1997 to 2018,this paper analyzes the economic growth effect of provincial capital city expansions after 2000 using the synthetic control method.It conducts a robustness test by using the placebo method.Then,the mechanism is analyzed from the perspective that the provincial capital city's economic scale accounts for the whole province's proportion.The empirical results show that the expansion of administrative boundaries of provincial capital cities can not significantly promote the economic growth of the whole provinces.The heterogeneity analysis shows that for provincial capital cities whose economic scale accounts for a large proportion of the province,expanding the scale of provincial capital cities by administrative means has a significant inhibitory effect on the economic development of the provinces,and the inhibitory intensity continues to grow over time.For the provinces where the provincial capital cities accounted for a relatively low proportion of the provinces'economy before expansion,it was found that the policy did not inhibit the provinces'economic growth,and the effect was not significant.The policy implication of this paper is that the expansion of the administrative boundaries of provincial capital cities has a high risk.As central cities of provinces,provincial capital cities have not played a role in promoting their economy.Therefore,the central government should carefully consider provincial capitals'administrative boundary expansion demands.The provincial capital city boundary expansion is not the only way to realize the"strong provincial capital"strategy.Considering the existing economic volume of the provincial capital city,the provincial government can carry out concussive and collaborative development through talent strategy,the construction of the metropolitan area,and other means.At the same time,subcentral cities should be cultivated to avoid"One city dominating"which might restrict the province's economic growth.