基于GTWR的广东省乡村聚落规模时空演变研究

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of rural settlements in Guangdong Province based on GTWR model

乡村聚落在聚落体系中具有重要地位,但长期以来缺乏对乡村聚落规模时空演变内在机理的深入研究,导致乡村聚落的规划、建设和管理缺乏有效的理论指导。本研究基于遥感影像获取1980年、1995年、2005年、2015年4期广东省乡村聚落空间分布数据,以乡村聚落斑块为单元,使用时空地理加权回归模型,揭示乡村聚落规模演变影响因素的时空差异,总结影响机制的阶段性规律。研究结论如下:(1)广东省乡村聚落规模演变呈现出增加–平稳–减少的趋势,35 a间总规模略有减少但区域结构性差异明显。珠三角地区乡村聚落演化与全省趋势一致;粤东地区原有乡村聚落不断扩张导致总规模持续上升,但趋势逐渐减弱;粤西北乡村聚落以部分聚落原地扩张和部分聚落日渐收缩并行为主,新增乡村聚落和乡村聚落城市化幅度均不高。(2)各影响因素对乡村聚落规模演变的作用力存在明显时空差异,地形条件、路网密度、县域人均GDP和基期聚落面积对乡村聚落规模的影响普遍呈现“倒U型”趋势,其它自然环境本底、区位可达性、社会经济因素的驱动方向稳定,但影响力随阶段变化。(3) 35 a间广东省经历了城乡分割、城乡冲击和城乡融合3个发展阶段,各阶段乡村聚落规模演变的动力呈现出显著差别,在城乡分割阶段,乡村聚落发展存在明显的路径依赖;而在城乡冲击阶段,社会经济发展水平高、自然条件优越、交通基础设施建设完备的聚落更易发生城市化;在城乡融合阶段,自然环境本底的影响逐渐减弱,而区位可达性的重要性逐渐凸显。

Rural settlement plays an important role in the settlement system,but for a long time there has been a lack of in-depth research on the internal mechanism of the spatio-temporal evolution of rural settlement scale,resulting in the lack of effective theoretical guidance for the planning,construction and management of rural settlement.In this study,the spatial distribution data of rural settlements in Guangdong Province in 1980,1995,2005 and 2015 were obtained based on remote sensing images.Taking rural settlement patches as the unit,the spatio-temporal geographical weighted regression model was used to reveal the spatio-temporal differences of the factors influencing the evolution of rural settlement scale,and the periodic rules of the influencing mechanism were summarized.The conclusions are as follows:1)The evolution of rural settlement scale in Guangdong Province showed a trend of increasing,stable and decreasing,and the total settlement scale decreased slightly in the past 35 years,but the regional structural difference was obvious.The evolution of rural settlements in the Pearl River Delta region is consistent with the trend of the whole province.The continuous expansion of the original rural settlements in east Guangdong led to a continuous increase in the total scale,but the trend gradually weakened.In northwest Guangdong Province,some rural settlements mainly expand in situ and some shrink gradually.The urbanization rate of new rural settlements and rural settlements is not high.2)There are obvious spatio-temporal differences in the influencing factors on the evolution of rural settlement scale.The influence of terrain conditions,road network density,county GDP per capita and base period settlement area on rural settlement scale generally presents an"inverted U-shaped"trend,while the driving direction of other natural environment background,location accessibility and socio-economic factors is stable,but the influence changes with the stage.3)In the past 35 years,Guangdong Province experienced three development stages:Rural-urban division,rural-urban impact and rural-urban integration.The dynamics of rural settlement scale evolution in each stage showed significant differences.In the stage of rural-urban division,rural settlement development had obvious path dependence.In the stage of urban-rural impact,the settlements with high level of social and economic development,superior natural conditions and complete transportation infrastructure are more likely to be urbanized.In the stage of urban-rural integration,the influence of natural environment background gradually weakens,while the importance of location accessibility gradually becomes prominent.