基于“幸存者偏差”评估模型的调查研究方法——以“企业电子文件归档和电子档案管理试点”数据分析为例

A Survey Research Method Based on the“Survivor Bias”Assessment Model:--Taking the Data Analysis of“The Enterprise Electronic Document Archiving and Electronic Archives Management Pilot Project”as an Example

分享成功试点项目经验或项目成功部分的经验,应该且必要,但仅分享这些,存在“幸存者偏差”的可能。在分享成功经验的同时,对试点过程产生的数据进行挖掘,尝试采用试点项目通过率、试点区域覆盖面、试点单位类型覆盖面、试点系统完成度、试点项目完成度、试点单位变更率、试点项目如期完成率等指标,进行统计归纳分析,探寻具有普遍意义的规律,形成可复制、易使用的“幸存者偏差”评估模型,既有助于后来者,在电子文件归档和电子档案管理工作试点、推广、应用、实施时,充分利用先行者的经验,少走弯路,避免“幸存者偏差”造成的影响,防止踩坑;也可为《“十四五”全国档案事业发展规划》中期评估和总结评估,提供一个工具。

Sharing experience from successful pilot projects or successful portions of projects is necessary and desirable.However,it may lead to“survivor bias”.While sharing the successful experience,the data generated in the pilot process will be mined,and indicators such as the pass rate of the pilot project,the coverage of the pilot region,the coverage of the pilot unit type,the completion degree of the pilot system,the completion degree of the pilot project,the change rate of the pilot unit,and the completion rate of the pilot project on schedule will be used for statistical induction and analysis to explore the laws of universal significance.The formation of a replicable and easy-to-use"survivor bias"assessment model will help the followers not only to make full use of the experience of the forerunners in the pilot process,promotion,application and implementation of electronic document archiving and electronic archive management,avoid the impact of"survivor bias"and prevent them from falling into a trap,but also can provide a tool for the mid-term evaluation and summary evaluation of"The 14th Five-Year Plan"for the Development of National Archives.