中国式市域现代化水平测度及时空演化研究

A Study on the Chinese-style Modernization Level Measurement and Space-temporal Evolution in Cities

为度量中国式市域现代化水平,本文基于2003—2020年我国277个地级市面板数据,运用熵权—TOPSIS、Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计和马尔科夫链转移概率矩阵等方法评估并分析了中国式市域现代化水平、区域差异与动态演变过程,并进行β收敛检验。研究发现:(1)中国式市域现代化水平整体处在上升趋势中,东部地区、特大城市、一线城市的市域现代化水平最高;(2)中国四大区域间东西差距较大,各区域间差距在逐渐减小;(3)市域的现代化等级具有较高的稳定性,发展过程存在显著的β收敛特征,从收敛周期来看,有望在21世纪中叶前完成“第二个百年”目标。研究结果对于把握中国式现代化建设进程、合理应对区域不平衡问题具有参考意义。

To measure the level of Chinese-style urban modernization,we assess and analyze the level of Chinese-style urban modernization,regional differences and dynamic evolution process based on the panel data of 277 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2020,using entropy-TOPSIS,Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation and Markov chain transfer probability matrix,and conduct β convergence test.It is found that:(1) the overall level of Chinese-style urban modernization is in an upward trend,and the eastern region,megacities,first-tier cities have the highest level of urban modernization.(2) The east-west gap in the four major regions in China is large,and the gap between regions is gradually decreasing.(3) The modernization level of cities has a high stability,and the development process has a significant β convergence feature.The convergence cycle indicates that China is expected to realize the second Centennial Goal by the 2050s.The results of the study are of reference significance for grasping the modernization process in Chinese style and dealing with the regional imbalance reasonably.