生产性服务业创业集聚对经济增长的门槛效应——基于山东省137县市的实证分析

Threshold Effect of Entrepreneurial Agglomeration of Producer Services on Economic Growth--An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of 137 Counties/Cities in Shandong Province

基于山东省137个县域单位2008—2018年的工商注册信息和统计数据资料,采用门槛面板模型,区分创新型和一般型生产性服务业,考察创业的专业化集聚与协同集聚的经济增长效应。结果表明,创新型生产性服务业创业具有更高的经济增长效应,且与其它类型创业的协同作用更为明显,但也更容易受到拥挤效应的影响;对于县域单位,创新型生产性服务业3年累计创业数量与人口比值保持在1.383~8.553,一般型生产性服务业创业保持在5.605~63.40时,专业化集聚及其与其它类型创业协同的经济效应处于最优区间。在发展创新型服务业的同时,应当因地制宜引导各类创业活动形成合理规模,促进协同发展,增强第一、二产业的创新能力与融合带动水平,继续打造以青岛和济南为中心的城市群建设。

Based on the Business Registration data and statistical data of 137 county-level areas in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2018,and by dividing producer services into the Innovative Producer Services(IPS)and Gen⁃eral Producer Services(GPS),this paper uses the threshold panel model to analyze the economic growth effect of spe⁃cialized agglomeration and synergic agglomeration of producer services entrepreneurship.The results show that:Compared with the GPS,IPS entrepreneurship has a higher economic growth effect,and its synergy with other types of entrepreneurship is more obvious,but it is also more vulnerable to the impact to crowding effect;when the ratio of the accumulated number of IPS entrepreneurship to population in three years in county-level areas remains at 1.383-8.553,and that of GPS entrepreneurship 5.605-63.40,the specialized agglomeration and the economic effect of its synergy with other types of entrepreneurship is in the optimal range.This paper puts forward that while innova⁃tive service industry is developed,all kinds of entrepreneurial activities should be guided according to local circum⁃stances to form a reasonable scale so as to promote the synergic development,improve the innovation ability and in⁃tegration promotion level of primary and secondary industries,and continuously build the urban agglomeration with Qingdao and Jinan as the centers.