房价波动、产业关联与货币政策调控

House Price Fluctuation,Industrial Correlation and Monetary Policy Regulation

本文搭建了一个动态随机一般均衡框架,模拟分析不同类型房地产业关联特征下货币政策与房地产贷款集中度管理的实施效果。研究发现:不同类型产业关联特征对货币政策及房地产贷款集中度管理的调控效果会引致显著的产业非对称效应;货币政策与房地产贷款集中度管理的协调配合能够有效管理宏观经济波动,并缓解房地产与实体经济的失衡。本文从加强关联性风险监测、突出系统性周期管理及注重结构性预调微调等三个方面提出政策建议。

This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework to simulate and analyze the implementation effect of monetary policy and real estate loan concentration management under different types of real estate industry correlation characteristics.It is found that the regulatory effect of different types of industrial correlation characteristics on monetary policy and real estate loan concentration management will lead to significant industrial asymmetry effects;The coordination of monetary policy and real estate loan concentration management can effectively manage macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the imbalance between real estate and real economy.This paper puts forward policy suggestions from three aspects:strengthening related risk monitoring,highlighting systematic cycle management and paying atention to structural pre-adjustment and fine-tuning.