陆地冰冻圈变化的水文效应:研究现状及展望

Hydrological effect of land cryosphere change: research status and prospective

全球陆地冰冻圈主要由冰川、积雪、冻土、河湖冰等组成,与地球其他圈层联系密切,是全球变化最为快速、最为显著、亦是最具指示性和对气候系统影响反应最直接和最敏感的圈层。从陆地冰冻圈(主要考虑冰雪和冻土等要素)变化的水文效应角度,梳理了目前国内外的研究现状和关键科学问题,讨论了当前研究中存在的难点和不足,并展望了该研究方向的未来发展趋势。在全球变暖的大背景下,陆地冰冻圈发生了显著变化,冰雪和冻土的消融直接影响陆地水文过程及水资源供给,然而由于缺乏详实地面观测和未能完整刻画冰冻圈物理过程(尤其是冻土过程),目前研究仍缺乏对冰冻圈水文过程机理的深入理解。因此,认为构建全球陆地冰冻圈观测体系、开发具有完整物理过程的冰冻圈水文模型是未来研究的重点;未来应将冰冻圈视为一个整体,由单一要素、单一圈层的探索向基于多圈层互馈理论的冰冻圈科学体系化方向迈进,着重探讨其变化对区域乃至全球水文循环和生态环境以及人类社会经济的影响,并运用多学科交叉和新技术等手段开展全球尺度的系统性研究。

The global land cryosphere is mainly composed of glaciers,snow,permafrost,river and lake ice.The land cryosphere is closely related to other spheres of the Earth.It is the fastest,most significant,most indicative,direct and sensitive sphere to the climate change.In this paper,from the viewpoint of hydrological effects of the land cryosphere changes(mainly considering snow,ice,and frozen ground),the current research status and key scientific issues are sorted out,the difficulties and shortcomings in the current research are discussed,and the future direction of this research field is prospected.Under the background of global warming,the land cryosphere has changed significantly.The melting of ice,snow and frozen ground directly affects the land hydrological processes and regional water resources supply.However,due to the lack of detailed ground observation and a complete description of the physical processes of the cryosphere(especially the frozen ground process),there is still a lack of deep understanding of the cryosphere-hydrology processes.Therefore,building a global land cryosphere-hydrology observation system and developing a cryosphere-hydrology model considering integrated physical processes will be the focus of future research.Regarding the cryosphere as a whole,moving from the exploration of a single element and a single sphere to the scientific systematization of the cryosphere based on the theory of mutual feedback of multi-spheres,focusing on the impact of cryosphere changes on the regional and global water cycle,ecological environment and human social economy,and using interdisciplinary approach and new technologies to carry out systematic research on a global scale are the main directions of future research.