增加值贸易框架下的中国制造业出口供给侧结构测度及动态演进

Measurement and Dynamic Evolution of Supply-side Structure in China's Manufacturing Exports under the Value-added Trade Framework

本文以增加值贸易框架为基础,构建了适用于供给侧视角的测算体系,对中国制造业出口供给侧的发展趋势进行了考察,并从增加值出口载体、供给的下游行业以及国别流向三个维度解构分析了其动态演进特征。研究发现,部分低技术和中技术行业对中国出口供给的增加值持续下滑,在出口生产体系中的供给地位趋于边缘化,还面临产能过剩等问题;高技术行业表现出一定的升级趋势,但对高级复杂中间品等的供给能力仍较为欠缺。总体上,我国制造业增加值出口供给侧结构趋于高级化,但2008年之后的世界经济波动使该趋势面临不确定性。中国制造业要避免尚未全面进入价值链高附加值环节却被挤出价值链低端环节的局面。

Based on the value-added trade framework,this paper constructs a measurement system applicable to the supply-side perspective,investigates the development trends of China's manufacturing exports from the supply-side,and deconstructs then analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics from three dimensions:value-added export carriers,downstream industries of supply,and country destinations.The study finds that the value-added contribution of some low and medium-technology industries to China's export supply has been continuously declining,with their supply positions in the export production system becoming marginalized and facing issues such as overcapacity.High-technology industries show a certain upgrading trend,but stll lack the ability to supply advanced complex intermediate goods.Overall,the supply-side structure of value-added exports in China's manufacturing industry tends to be more advanced,but the world economic fluctuations since 2008 have introduced uncertainty to this trend.China's manufacturing industry should avoid being squeezed out of the low-end of the value chain while not fully entering the high value-added segments.