消费信贷对居民消费支出影响研究--基于贷款期限结构的视角

Study on the Influence of Consumer Credit on Consumer Exxpenditure--Based on the view of loan term structure

作为一种金融工具--消费信贷可以部分解决消费者流动性不足的问题。基于贷款期限结构的视角,实证检验了短期消费贷款和中长期消费贷款对居民消费支出的影响。结果表明:不同期限结构消费信贷对居民消费支出影响各异;短期消费贷款对居民消费支出具有显著正向推动效应,短期消费贷款的投放明显弥补了居民个人流动性不足,拉动了当期居民消费支出的同步增长;中长期消费贷款对居民消费支出的促进作用明显减弱,基于跨期消费效应,中长期消费贷款会影响到居民对未来的预期,对当期居民消费支出具有一定程度的“挤出效应”。基于此,应优化消费信贷期限结构,持续降低融资成本,完善保障功能,为信贷促进消费提供外部条件。

As a financial instrument--consumer credit can partly solve the problem of insufficient consumer liquidity.Based on the perspective of loan term structure,this paper empirically tests the impact of short-term and medium and long-term consumer loans on household consumption expenditure.The results show that consumer credit with different term structure has different influence on consumer expenditure.Short-term con-sumer loans have a significant positive promoting effect on consumer expenditure.The short-term consumer loans make up for the lack of personal liquidity of residents and promote the synchronous growth of consumer expendi-ture in the current period.The promotion effect of medium and long-term consumer loans on consumer expenditure is significantly weakened.Based on the intertemporal consumption effect,medium and long-term consumer loans will affect residents'expectations for the future and have a certain degree of“crowding out effect”on current household consumption expenditure.Based on this,it is necessary to optimize the term structure of consumer credit,continuously reduce financing costs,improve support functions,and provide external conditions for credittopromote consumption.