台风浪集合预报方法研究

Research on a typhoon wave ensemble forecast method

提出一种新型的集合预报方法,考虑台风实时预报信息及历史路径信息,基于动态权重生成台风预报路径集合,形成集合预报风场,并结合波浪数值模式(SWAN)和有限体积海洋数值模式(FVCOM),对台风期间波浪的有效波高进行模拟实验;在后报验证的基础上,使用集合预报数值实验给出结果的概率分布。结果表明:在集合预报的部分时间段内,集合预报结果对实测结果的覆盖率最高达到94%。此方法适用于台风影响下近岸波浪要素的预测,可为近岸海域的波浪预报工作提供新的预报技术和思路。

In this paper,we propose a new ensemble forecasting method for typhoon waves.By considering real-time typhoon forecasts and historical typhoon track information,this method generates ensemble typhoon track and wind field forecasts,and eventually predicts the significant wave height by using the outputs from Simulating Waves Nearshore(SWAN)and Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model(FVCOM)models.This method is verified through conducting ensemble hindcast experiments,and probability distribution of the predicted significant wave height is derived.The results show that the coverage of the forecasts to observation reaches up to 94%in part of forecast duration.This method is applicable to the near-shore wave element prediction in severe weather systems such as typhoon,and can provide new techniques and ideas for wave forecasting in near-shore waters.