渭河流域人口与经济空间分布一致性及影响因素分析

Study on the Consistency and Influencing Factors of Population and Economic Spatial Distribution in the Weihe River Basin

[目的]探究渭河流域人口与经济空间分布特征及协调关系,为缩小区域差距、促进区域协调发展相关政策制定提供理论依据。[方法]基于2000—2019年渭河流域88个县区人口和GDP数据,综合运用不均衡指数、地理集中度、不一致指数等方法,从总体和局域分析渭河流域人口与经济空间分布关系的动态演变特征,并基于面板数据对人口与经济空间分异的影响因素进行探析。[结果](1)渭河流域人口与经济不均衡程度经历了先减小再扩大的变化过程,不均衡指数由2000年的0.105上升至2019年的0.107,区域发展差异一直存在;(2)人口与经济空间分布均呈现“东南稠密,西北稀疏”的特点,但人口要素主要聚集在渭河干流沿线县区,经济要素则主要以各市辖区为聚集中心;(3)根据不一致指数,渭河流域人口与经济空间分布关系可划分为经济极化型、经济超前型、均衡发展型、人口超前型、人口极化型5种类型;(4)人口与经济分布的空间非均衡性不仅受市场机制和政府作用的影响,还与城市发展水平和区域发展战略明显关联,解释变量在不同时期影响作用也存在一定差异。[结论]渭河流域区域发展不协调形势严峻,推动流域西北部县区发展,缩小省际发展差距,促进人口与经济空间均衡仍然是未来需要解决的问题之一。

[Objective]The spatial distribution characteristics and coordination relationship between population and economy in Weihe River Basin were explored to provide theoretical basis for reducing regional gap and promoting regional coordinated development.[Methods]Based on population and GDP data of 88 counties and districts in the Weihe River Basin from 2000 to 2019,the imbalance index,geographical concentration,inconsistency index and other methods were comprehensively used to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of the relationship between population and economic spatial distribution in the Weihe River Basin from the overall and local levels.Based on the panel data,the influencing factors of population and economic space differentiation were analyzed.[Results](1)The imbalance between population and economy in the Weihe River Basin had undergone a process of first decreasing and then expanding.The imbalance index had increased from 0.105 in 2000 to 0.107 in 2019,and regional development differences had always existed.(2)The spatial distribution of population and economy was characterized by dense in the southeast and sparse in the northwest,but the population factors mainly concentrated in the counties and districts along the main stream of the Weihe River,and the economic factors mainly concentrated in the municipal districts.(3)According to the inconsistency index,the relationship between population and economic spatial distribution in the Weihe River Basin could be divided into five types:economic polarization,economic advance,balanced development,population advance,and population polarization.(4)The spatial imbalance of population and economic distribution was not only affected by the market mechanism and the role of the government,but also obviously related to the level of urban development and regional development strategy of counties and districts,and the influence of explanatory variables in different periods was also different.[Conclusion]The situation of uncoordinated regional development in the Weihe River Basin is severe.It is still one of the problems to be solved in the future to promote the development of counties in the northwest of this basin,narrow the inter-provincial development gap,and promote the spatial balance of population and economy.