新疆经济弹性与能源消耗关系研究——基于脱钩理论的分析

The study of the relationship between economic elasticity and energy consumption in Xinjiang analysis based on decoupling theory

新疆地区作为我国传统的能源资源大省,在应对外部冲击并从中进行恢复的过程中,不可避免地要依赖于能源消耗。为了科学探索新疆经济弹性与能源消耗之间的关系以及该关系在时空分布上的规律,以指导各地州市经济绿色发展,依据经济弹性理论,建立抵御、恢复、组织、更新4个维度的经济弹性体系,在对新疆14个地州市经济弹性与能源消耗进行脱钩指数测评的基础上,应用GIS技术对脱钩状态的时空冷热点聚集态势进行了探索。结果表明:首先,新疆经济在应对外部冲击时,主要依靠能源消耗带来的效益;其次,在脱钩苗头初现的地州市,培育孵化代替性产业;最后,新疆经济发展对能源消耗的依赖逐步呈现出地理聚集特征。并在此基础上提出了一些建议。

As a traditional province with large energy and resources in China,Xinjiang region has unique advantages in energy and resources during the socio-economic development process,and its economy inevitably relies on energy consumption when coping with external shocks.Based on the evaluation of decoupling index of economic elasticity and energy consumption in 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang,this study applied GIS technology to explore the spatiotemporal cold and hot spot aggregation trend of decoupling status.The results show that firstly,Xinjiang’s economy mainly relies on the benefits brought by energy consumption when coping with external shocks;secondly,cultivate and incubate alternative industries in prefectures and cities where decoupling is emerging;finally,the dependence of Xinjiang’s economic development on energy consumption gradually presents a geographical clustering feature.On this basis,some suggestions are proposed.