基于系统动力学的资源型城市经济转型路径研究——以延安市为例

Research on the transformation path of resource-based economy based onsystem dynamics——taking Yan’an City as an example

资源型城市凭借特有的资源禀赋,为中国工业化发展做出了巨大贡献。但随着经济长期粗放式的发展,引发了资源储量不足、生态环境恶化等一系列问题,严重阻碍了这些城市的转型发展。基于此背景,选取延安市为典型案例,从系统论的角度出发,分析其资源型经济转型过程的实践困境,并建立延安市资源型经济转型系统动力学模型,同时设计自然发展、产业优化、绿色低碳、资源节约、创新推动、复合发展六大转型路径,为延安市资源型经济转型探索最优路径。模拟结果表明:复合发展路径对延安市资源型经济转型的作用更为显著,能更好地为延安市资源型经济转型助力。最后从该维度出发,提出促进延安市资源型经济转型的建议。

With their unique resource endowment,resource-based cities have made great contributions to China’s industrialization.However,with the long-term extensive economic development,a series of problems such as insufficient resource reserves and deterioration of the ecological environment have seriously hindered the transformation and development of these cities.Based on this background,this paper selects Yan’an as a typical case,analyzes the practical difficulties of its resource-based economic transformation process from the perspective of system theory,establishes the system dynamics model of resource-based economic transformation of Yan’an,and designs six transformation paths:natural development,industrial optimization,green and low-carbon,resource conservation,innovation promotion and compound development.To explore the optimal path for the transformation of resource-based economy in Yan’an.The simulation results show that the compound development path has a more significant effect on the transformation of resource-based economy in Yan’an,and can better help the transformation of resource-based economy in Yan’an.Finally,from this dimension,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the transformation of resource-based economy in Yan’an.