数字经济核心产业产出效应:供给侧与需求侧的比较

The Output Effect of Core Industries in Digital Economy:A Comparison between Supply Side and Demand Side

从供给侧和需求侧两个角度测算数字经济核心产业的产出效应并进行对比分析。将2012年、2017年、2020年投入产出表相关部门数据进行整理,构建包含数字经济核心产业四个细分类别在内的数字经济可比价非竞争型投入产出表,并引入假设抽取思路和局部闭模型方法构建供给驱动模型和需求拉动模型,测算数字经济核心产业供给驱动效应和需求拉动效应。研究发现,数字经济核心产业需求侧产出效应当前占优势,但从趋势上看供给侧产出效应的增长势头强劲;无论是需求侧还是供给侧,数字产品制造业、数字技术应用业对数字经济核心产业产出效应的形成具有决定性作用,而数字要素驱动业、数字产品服务业的产出效应则相对薄弱。为此提出建议:一是有序推进数字经济核心产业各细分产业的发展,二是激发各类数字产品和服务的需求潜力,三是从供给侧加强数字经济核心产业对经济活动的长期影响。

This paper measures and compares the output effects of the core industry of digital economy from both of the two perspectives of supply side and demand side.By sorting out the data in the input-output tables from the relevant departments in the years of 2012,2017 and 2020,it establishes a comparable non-competitive input-output table of digital economy,including the four subcategories of the core industries of digital economy.Then by introducing the hypothesis extraction idea and the partial closure model methods,it constructs a supply-driven model and a demand-pulled model to measure the supply-driven effect and demand-pulled effect of the core industries of digital economy.The findings show that the demand-side output effect of the core industries of digital economy is dominant at present,but the growth momentum of the supply-side output effect is strong according to the trend.Whether on the demand side or on the supply side,the digital product manufacturing industry and the digital technology application industry play a decisive role in the formation of output effect of the core industries of digital economy,while the output effect of the digital factor driving industry and the digital product service industry is relatively weaker.Therefore,it is suggested to promote the development of various subdivisions of the core industries of the digital economy in an orderly manner,to stimulate the demand potential of various digital products and services,and to strengthen the long-term impact of the core industries of the digital economy on economic activities from the supply side.