基于组合赋权的有限区间云模型底板突水风险性评价

Risk Evaluation of Floor Water Inrush Based upon Combined Weighted Finite Interval Cloud Model

为了实现突水危险等级的准确评价,提出一种基于组合赋权的有限区间云模型评价方法。首先确定评价指标及其相应的分级标准,并通过组合赋权法计算出各指标的权重;同时基于正态有限区间云模型理论利用MATLAB计算各指标隶属于突水危险等级的云数字特征,生成正态云滴;最后,对唐家会煤矿61304工作面进行底板突水危险性评价,以验证该模型的可行性和科学性。评价结果显示,ZL-1、ZL-2和ZL-4点危险等级属于Ⅳ级和Ⅲ级,危险等级高于其它四个评价点。同时,这些位置的钻孔出水量和注浆量明显大于其它评价点,且都位于音频电透视探测结果的异常范围内。研究结果表明,本文提出的模型适用于底板突水危险性评价,丰富了煤层底板突水危险性评价方法,具有良好的应用前景。

An evaluation approach for finite interval clouds based on the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method is given for attaining the accurate assessment of the water inrush venture level.Firstly,the evaluation index and its corresponding grading standard are determined,and the weight of each index is calculated by combination weighting method;In parallel,MATLAB is utilized to figure the cloud digital feature of respective target corresponding to the venture level of water inpour,and regular cloud droplets are formed based on the theory of the normal finite interval cloud model.To confirm the viability and objectivity of the model,a risk analysis of floor water inrush in Tangjiahui Coal Mine's 61304 working face is completed.The evaluation results show that the danger levels of ZL-1,ZL-2 and ZL-4 points belong to grade Ⅳ and grade Ⅲ,which are higher than the other four evaluation points.At the same time,the drilling water and grouting volumes at these locations are significantly greater than those at other evaluation points,and they are all within the abnormal range of the audio-visual fluoroscopy results.The research results show that the model proposed in this paper is suitable for the risk assessment of floor water inrush,enriches the assessment method of coal seam floor water inrush risk,and has a good application prospect.