基于PLUS-InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量时空变化预测

Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Changes of Carbon Stocks in Anhui Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

[目的]分析安徽省2000年以来碳储量的时空变化及空间分布特征,为未来该区土地管理决策和生态系统碳库管理提供有效指导。[方法]以安徽省为例,基于2000,2005,2010,2015,2020年5期土地利用数据,采用PLUS模型模拟2030,2040年不同情景下土地利用格局,并运用InVEST模型定量评估不同情景下陆地生态系统碳储量的空间变化。[结果]①2000—2020年安徽省约有8.03%土地发生了转移,耕地与建设用地之间的转化是该省土地利用变化的主要特征。②2000—2020年陆地生态系统碳储量总体呈下降趋势,下降了1.01×10^(8)t。空间格局上呈现“南高北低”的特征,碳密度高值区主要分布在皖南、皖西山区。③2020—2040年自然发展情景下碳储量下降趋势明显,耕地保护情景下降速度有所减缓,生态保护情景下碳储量明显增加,增量为3.07×10^(7)t。[结论]实施生态保护政策能够有效提高区域生态系统碳储量,增强生态系统服务功能。未来在进行土地利用管理决策时应统筹考虑生态保护和耕地保护,促进区域生态系统良性可持续发展。

[Objective]The spatio-temporal variation and spatial distribution of carbon stocks since 2000 were analyzed in order to provide effective guidance for land management decision-making and ecosystem carbon pool management in Anhui Province in the future.[Methods]The PLUS model was used with land use data in Anhui Province over five periods(2000,2005,2010,2015,2020)to simulate land use patterns under different scenarios in 2030 and 2040.The InVEST model was applied to quantitatively assess the spatial changes of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems under different scenarios.[Results]①Approximately 8.03%of the land changed classification from 2000 to 2020,and the change between cultivated land and construction land was the fundamental element of land use change in Anhui Province.②Between 2000 and 2020,the total amount of carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems decreased by 1.01×10^(8)t.High values of carbon density were primarily found in the hilly regions of Southern and Western Anhui Province.The spatial distribution of carbon density exhibited a pattern of“high in the south and low in the north.”③From 2020 to 2040,carbon stocks for the natural development scenario clearly declined,while the decrease in carbon stocks for the cultivated land preservation scenario slowed down.Carbon stocks for the ecological protection scenario increased significantly,with an increment of 3.07×10^(7)t.[Conclusion]Implementing ecological conservation policies can effectively increase carbon stocks of regional ecosystems and enhance ecosystem service functions.Ecological conservation and cultivated land protection should be considered in future land use management decisions to promote the environmentally harmless and sustainable development of regional ecosystems.