基于灰色交叉影响的油库改造工程安全风险因素识别

Identification of safety risk factors in oil depot renovation project based on grey cross influence

针对油库改造工程安全风险识别难度大、无法动态评价的问题,为了在油库改造工程组织实施过程中精准识别、有效管控和避免安全风险,采取灰色关联理论和交叉影响分析相结合的方法,结合油库工程改造实例开展研究,首先,利用灰色关联理论分析单个风险因素与油库安全事故之间的初始关联度;然后,考虑风险因素之间的相互影响,采用交叉影响分析,在项目不同阶段根据风险事件的动态变化修正各风险因素与安全事故的关联度,取得了油库改造工程风险识别评价方法创新的成果,得出了管理因素和人员因素是油库改造过程中导致事故发生关联性最强的因素,对于科学、实时、有效地识别关键风险因素,合理应用有限资源组织油库改造工程安全评价,降低油库改造安全风险具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。

Aiming at the problem that it was difficult to identify the safety risk of oil depot renovation project and cannot be evaluated dynamically,in order to accurately identify,effectively control and avoid the safety risk in the organization and implementation of oil depot renovation project,the method of combining grey correlation theory with cross influence analysis was adopted,and the research was carried out with an example of oil depot renovation project.Firstly,the initial correlation degree between a single risk factor and oil depot safety accidents was analyzed by using grey correlation theory;then,considering the mutual influence of risk factors,the cross influence analysis was adopted to correct the correlation between each risk factor and safety accident according to the dynamic change of risk events at different stages of the project,and the innovative results of risk identification and evaluation method of oil depot renovation project were obtained.It is concluded that management factors and personnel factors are the most relevant factors leading to accidents in the process of oil depot renovation,which has important theoretical and practical guiding significance for scientifically,real-time and effectively identifying key risk factors,rationally applying limited resources to organize the safety evaluation of oil depot renovation project and reducing the safety risk of oil depot reconstruction.