基于博弈论组合赋权—VIKOR模型的洛阳市水资源承载力评价研究

Evaluation of water resources Carrying capacity in Luoyang City based on Game Theory combinatorial weighting-Vikor model

为评价和提高洛阳市水资源承载能力,保障洛阳市高质量建设和经济社会高质量发展,基于2015—2020年间洛阳市水资源公报、河南统计年鉴等资料,建立水资源评价体系。运用博弈论对熵权法、层次分析法和改进CRITIC法得到的权重进行组合,选取VIKOR法计算利益比率值,以此作为综合评价值对洛阳市水资源承载力进行评价。研究结果发现,在2015—2020年,洛阳市水资源承载力综合评价值虽然会有一定的浮动,但总体走势下行。就水资源承载能力的强弱而言,2018年是最强的,其次是2017、2020、2019、2016、2015年。近几年随着相关规划及政策的实施,洛阳市水资源及四个子系统承载力在逐步提升。

In order to evaluate and improve the carrying capacity of water resources in Luoyang City,ensure the high quality construction of Luoyang city and the high quality development of economy and society,a water resources evaluation system was established based on the data of Luoyang Water Resources Bulletin and Henan Statistical Yearbook during 2015-2020.The weight of entropy weight method,analytic Hierarchy process(AHP)and Improvement CRITIC method were combined by game theory,and the VIKOR method was selected to calculate the interest ratio value,so as to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Luoyang.The results show that,although the comprehensive assessment value of water resources carrying capacity in Luoyang City will fluctuate to a certain extent during 2015-2020,the overall trend will be downward.In terms of the strength of water resources carrying capacity,2018 was the strongest,followed by 2017,2020,2019,2016 and 2015.In recent years,with the implementation of relevant planning and policies,the carrying capacity of water resources and four subsystems in Luoyang has been gradually improved.