2000—2020年山西省农业碳排放时空特征及趋势预测

Carbon emissions from agricultural and animal husbandry in Shanxi Province:temporal and regional aspects,and trend forecast

为探讨山西省农业碳排放时空特征及未来变化趋势,采用排放因子法,基于种植业、畜牧业10类碳源,测算山西省2000—2020年农业碳排放量,并运用STIRPAT模型对2021—2030年全省农业碳排放量进行预测。结果表明:2000—2020年山西省农业碳排放量总体呈先缓慢上升后波动下降的变化趋势,农业碳排放强度整体呈波动下降的变化趋势,年均降幅4.1%。种植业和畜牧业分别占农业碳排放总量的42.2%和57.8%。其中施用化肥是种植业碳排放最重要的来源,年均占比26.9%。牛、羊养殖是畜牧业碳排放最主要的两大来源,平均贡献率为28.4%、21.9%。山西省农业碳排放总量高值区多分布于晋北及晋南地区,低值区分布于中部地区,农业碳排放强度呈北高南低的分布特征。基于STIRPAT模型对山西省2010—2020年农业碳排放估算结果的精确度较高,由此预测2021—2030年山西省农业碳排放量,结果显示其呈下降趋势,在基准情景、低碳情景1和低碳情景2中,到2030年农业碳排放量分别为277.2万、268.5万、252.3万t。研究表明,山西省农业已实现碳达峰,随着低碳措施的进一步强化,未来农业碳排放呈持续降低趋势,有助于加速实现碳中和目标。

In Shanxi Province,to investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and their future trends,agricultural carbon emissions were estimated using the emission factor method based on 10 carbon sources of planting and animal husbandry during 2000—2020,and agricultural carbon emissions during 2021—2030 were predicted using the STIRPAT model.From 2000 to 2020,agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province tended to rise slowly,followed by a fluctuating decline.Agriculture and animal husbandry carbon emission intensity exhibited a fluctuating trend of decline,with an average annual decline of 4.1%.The planting and animal husbandry contribution rates were 42.2% and 57.8%,respectively.Fertilizer usage is the largest source of planting carbon emissions,accounting for 26.9% annually.Cattle and sheep are the two main sources of carbon emissions from animal husbandry,accounting for 28.4% and 21.9% of total emissions,respectively.The high-value areas of total agricultural carbon emissions were mainly distributed in the north and south.In contrast,the low-value areas were distributed in the central part.Therefore,the distribution characteristics of agricultural carbon emission intensity were high in the north and low in the south.Because the STIRPAT model is accurate in estimating agricultural carbon emissions during 2010—2020,the agricultural carbon emissions during 2021—2030 are predicted.In the baseline scenarios,low-carbon scenario 1 and scenario 2,the projected carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry by 2030 are 2772000 tons,2685000 tons,and 2523000 tons,respectively.The study demonstrates that agricultural carbon in Shanxi Province has reached its peak.With the further strengthening of low-carbon measures,agricultural carbon emissions will continue to decrease,which will help accelerate the realization of carbon neutrality.