协同集聚外部性与产业升级互动关系研究——基于制造业与生产性服务业的PVAR分析

The Interactive Relationship between Collaborative Agglomeration Externalities and Industrial Upgrading:A PVAR Analysis of Manufacturing and Producer Services

为廓清制造业和生产性服务业协同集聚外部性(专业化外部性、多样化外部性)与产业升级之间的关系,基于2006—2019年中国省际面板数据,运用PVAR模型,对三者之间的关系进行探究。结果表明,不同协同集聚外部性存在差异,专业化外部性较多样化外部性更能促进产业升级,二者之间存在相互促进机制;多样化外部性与产业升级表现为促进和抑制并存的交互作用,短期内虽表现为促进作用,但随着时间推移,抑制作用会逐渐显现;协同集聚外部性与产业升级之间的动态互动关系具有区域异质性,专业化外部性与产业升级仅在东部地区表现为促进和抑制并存的交互关系,多样化外部性与产业升级在东西部地区表现为相互促进的交互关系,中部地区协同集聚与产业升级之间尚未形成良性互动。

In China,the formation of the collaborative agglomeration of manufacturing and producer services(hereinafter referred to as "industrial collaborative agglomeration") is different from the market-oriented mechanism emphasized by the mainstream agglomeration theory,for it is not only affected by the dual role of the government and the market,but also mainly guided by the government.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the theoretical interaction mechanism between the externalities of industrial collaborative agglomeration and industrial upgrading in the context of China.In order to break through the limitations of single-dimension and static research,this study divides the externalities of industrial collaborative agglomeration into diversification externalities and specialization externalities,and puts them into the same analytical framework as industrial upgrading.Drawing on China's provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019,this study employs the panel vector autoregression(PVAR) model,and discusses the dynamic interaction between China's provincial diversification externalities,specialization externalities and industrial upgrading,so as to accurately grasp the characteristics of China's industrial collaborative agglomeration and its relationship with industrial upgrading.The results show that(1) at the national level,diversification externalities,specialization externalities and industrial upgrading are not all two-way causal relationships.Firstly among the three,only specialization externalities and industrial upgrading,specialization externalities and diversification externalities have two-way Granger causality,while diversification externalities are not the Granger cause of industrial upgrading.Secondly,diversification externalities,specialization externalities and diversification externalities all have self-reinforcing effects,but their effects on each other are significantly different.For example,diversification externalities have always inhibited specialization externalities,but specialization externalities have short-term promoting and long-term inhibiting effects on diversification externalities.Diversified externalities have short-term promotion and long-term inhibition effects on industrial upgrading,but specialized externalities have always promoted industrial upgrading.Although the effect of industrial upgrading on both specialization externalities and diversification externalities lags behind,one is short-term promotion,the other is long-term inhibition,and the third is constant promotion.(2) At the regional level,affected by the formation mechanism of synergetic agglomeration,the externalities of synergetic agglomeration in the central and western regions have similarities in their own and their relationship with each other,but do not have a long-term stable relationship.However,in the eastern region,the externalities of specialization have a self-reinforcing mechanism,while the externalities of diversification have a long-term self-restraining effect.The externalities of specialization promote the externalities of diversification,while the externalities of diversification inhibit the externalities of specialization.Although diversification externalities,specialization externalities and industrial upgrading all show a two-way causal relationship among regions,the dynamic relationship between the three shows heterogeneity at the regional level.For example,in the eastern region,the externalities of specialization and diversification can promote industrial upgrading in a short term,inhibit it in a long term,and promote it all the time.Although the western region is similar to the eastern region,the externalities of specialization and diversification play a heterogeneous role in industrial upgrading,for it seem there is not a long-term stable relationship between the two,but the externalities of specialization and diversification have been promoting industrial upgrading.The performance of the externalities of specialization in the central region on industrial upgrading is similar to that in the central region,but different from that in the eastern and western regions,and there is not a long-term stable relationship.On the basis of the above conclusions,this paper makes two policy recommendations.On the one hand,the government and the market need to have coordination and unity in the process of resource allocation,so as to reduce the policy agglomeration effect of collaborative agglomeration,strengthen the endogenous interaction mechanism of diversified externalities and specialized externalities,and give play to the self-strengthening mechanism of industrial upgrading.On the other hand,because the externalities of collaborative agglomeration and industrial upgrading have regional heterogeneity,local governments need to trace back to the sources from the perspective of the whole life cycle,and select the appropriate agglomeration mode of manufacturing and producer services according to local conditions.