考虑实际负荷增长模式下的配电网供电能力评估方法

Evaluation Method of Load Supply Capability of Distribution Network Considering Actual Load Growth Mode

网络结构、负荷分布及其增长方式是影响配电网供电能力的主要因素。传统评估方法多从规划角度展开,存在负荷增长方式与实际不符、忽略网架动态调整等缺点,从实际负荷变化的角度出发,提出了一种考虑实际负荷变化增长的供电能力评估方法。首先,采用存量点负荷增长和大用户报装的方式进行负荷预测,结合序列运算理论确定反映实际负荷变化的增长模式。其次,提出计及网络重构和大用户接入的供电潜力优化模型,预防负荷增长过程中供电瓶颈过早出现,最后用改进重复潮流法得到配电网供电能力。用PG&E 69节点配电系统进行算例分析,分别考虑负荷自然增长和自然增长同时存在大用户报装的两种场景,证明了评估方法的有效性和实用性。

Network structure,load distribution and its growth mode are the main factors affecting the load supply capacity of distribution network.Most traditional evaluation methods working from the perspective of planning have the disadvantages of inconsistent load growth with the reality and ignoring the dynamic adjustment of grid.This paper proposes a load supply capacity evaluation method considering the mode of actual load growth from the perspective of actual load change.Firstly,load forecasting is conducted through the growth of existing load points and the expansion of large consumer,and the load growth mode is determined in combination with sequence operation theory.Secondly,an optimization model of power supply potential that takes into account network reconfiguration and large user access is proposed to prevent the premature appearance of power supply bottlenecks during load growth.Finally the load supply capacity by the improved repeat power flow is obtained.According to the case study on the PGE 69-bus system with the first scenario of natural load growth and the second scenario of natural load growth with large consumer expansion at the same time,the practicability and validity of the method are demonstrated.