双循环格局与全球技术阵营划分是耦合还是对冲?——以德国市场分化问题为视角

Is the dual cycle pattern coupled with the division of global technology camps or hedging?——From the perspective of German market differentiation

随着中国提出构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,德国市场暨欧盟市场都几乎在同时期逐步转向内部市场。2022年党的二十大胜利召开,进一步对“双循环”格局进行了新的阐释和部署。2023年中美两国经济博弈会伴随着地缘政治冲突发展而进入更加微妙和复杂的阶段,汽车产业和芯片产业将是中美博弈的两大主战场。自2022年底开启的新一轮央企和国企改革将为中国科技企业带来更多底气和能量,为新一轮中美博弈增加筹码。“芯片四方联盟”成立以来,抗衡中国的西方阵营不断营造声势。中国当前正处于中国特色估值体系构建的起点、国企改革三年行动计划收官与新一轮国企改革的起点,全国统一大市场建设的起点以及“一带一路”倡议十周年,等等,都让中欧关系以及中美欧三边关系均处于更为微妙多变的地缘政治格局中。

With China's proposal to build a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycle promoting each other,the EU market and the German market have gradually turned to the internal market in almost the same period.The 20th National Congress of the CPC Central Committee was successfully held in 2022,which further explained and deployed the“double cycle”pattern.In 2023,the economic game between China and the United States will enter a more delicate and complex stage with the development of geopolitical conflicts.The automobile industry and chip industry will be the two main battlefields of the game between China and the United States.The new round of reform of central and state-owned enterprises,launched at the end of 2022,will bring more confidence and energy to China's science and technology enterprises,and add chips to the new round of Sino-US game.Since the establishment of the“Chip Sifang Alliance”,the western camp against China has been building momentum.China is currently at the starting point of building a valuation system with Chinese characteristics,the end of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform and the starting point of a new round of state-owned enterprise reform,the starting point of building a unified national market and the tenth anniversary of the“the Belt and Road”,all of which have put China-Europe relations and China-US-Europe trilateral relations in a more delicate geopolitical pattern.