桂西南喀斯特—北部湾“两山”价值转化研究

Study on Value Transformation of “Two mountains” in Southwest Guangxi Karst-Beibu Gulf

为探究桂西南喀斯特—北部湾生态山与经济山间的价值转化效率,通过能值法构建“两山”价值转化输入输出模型,评价2005—2020年桂西南喀斯特—北部湾“两山”价值转化水平与生态资本减值强度,并利用指数平滑法预测2021—2025年“两山”价值转化率。结果表明:(1)2005—2014年,桂西南喀斯特—北部湾“两山”价值转化水平整体呈波动上升的大幅调整过程,2015—2020年有小幅下降。2005—2020年各市“两山”价值转化水平不均衡,但整体呈现增加趋势。(2)2005—2016年推动桂西南喀斯特—北部湾生态资本减值的绝对驱动力量是水土流失,2017—2020年,碳排放是构成生态资本减值的主导因素。(3)指数平滑法预测2021—2025年桂西南喀斯特—北部湾“两山”能值转化率为缓慢下降。因此,需减少人类社会活动对环境的负压,降低区域生态系统的功能损耗。

In order to investigate the value conversion efficiency between “ecological mountain” and “economic mountain” in southwest Guangxi Karst-Beibu Gulf,the value transformation input-output model of “Two mountains” was constructed by the energy value method,and the value conversion level and ecological capital impairment intensity of “Two mountains” in southwest Guangxi Karst-Beibu Gulf from 2005 to 2020 were evaluated,and the value conversion rate of “Two mountains” in the next five years was predicted by the exponential smoothing method.The conclusions are as follows:(1) From 2005 to 2014,the overall value transformation level of southwest Guangxi karst-Beibu Gulf “Two mountains” shows a sharp adjustment process of fluctuation and increase,and a small decrease from 2015 to 2020.From 2005 to 2020,the level of value transformation of “Two mountains” in each city is uneven,but the overall trend is increasing.(2) The absolute driving force driving ecological capital impairment in southwest Guangxi Karst-Beibu Bay from 2005 to 2016 is soil erosion,and carbon emissions are the dominant factor constituting ecological capital impairment from 2017 to 2020.(3) The exponential smoothing method predicts that the energy conversion rate of “Two mountains” in southwest Guangxi Karst-Beibu Gulf will be slowly decreasing during 2021—2025.Therefore,it is necessary to reduce the negative pressure of human social activities on the environment and reduce the loss of regional ecosystem functions.