中国省域粮食产量影响因素分析

Analysis of factors influencing provincial grain production in China

粮食生产水平对一个地区和一国的经济发展具有重大的战略意义。文章运用Eviews 8.0软件构建了一个多变量的双对数模型,利用方差膨胀系数、异方差(怀特检验)、自相关(BG检验)等计量经济方法对中国31个省市区的粮食生产进行了统计分析。结果表明,各地区粮食播种和有效灌溉面积每增加1%,其粮食总产量分别增加0.798969%、0.257526%。最后,在实证研究的基础上,结合中国目前面临的粮食生产问题,提出了相应的政策建议。

The level of grain production in China is of great strategic importance to the economic development of a region and a country.In this paper,a multivariate double logit model was constructed using Eviews 8.0 software,and statistical analysis of grain production in 31 provinces was conducted using econometric methods such as the variance inflation coefficient,heteroskedasticity(White's test)and autocorrelation(BG test).The results showed that for every 1%increase in grain sown and effective irrigated area in each region,the total grain production in each region increased by 0.798969%and 0.257526%.Finally,on the basis of the empirical study,combined with the current grain production problems in China,the corresponding policy recommendations were put forward.