中国防护林碳储量动态及潜力分析

Carbon Storage Dynamics and Potential Analysis of Shelterbelt in China

防护林作为我国森林资源的主力军具有重大生态效用,发挥其巨大碳汇潜力对于我国应对气候变化、推进双碳目标实现也至关重要。基于1984-2018年7次全国森林资源连续清查数据,采用生物量转换因子法,估算中国防护林碳储量和碳密度。结果表明:(1)中国防护林碳储量从1988年的58507.76万t增加到2018年的400899.93万t,年均增长量为9782.63万t,防护林总平均碳密度呈升-降-升的趋势,在40.19 t/hm^(2)-48.03 t/hm^(2)区间内变动;(2)中龄防护林碳储量贡献率最大,过熟防护林碳密度更高;天然防护林是我国防护林碳储量的主要贡献者,其碳密度随林龄的增加而大幅增加;人工防护林碳密度远低于天然防护林但差值逐渐减少,人工防护林总平均碳密度呈稳步上升趋势;(3)西南地区是我国防护林碳储量的主要贡献者,碳储量长期处于六大区首位,以人工防护林为主的东南沿海地区防护林总平均碳密度仅次于华北地区;(4)采用GM(1,1)模型预测2030年中国防护林碳储量将达597148.06万t,较2018年实现碳储量增加196248.13万t;2060年中国防护林碳储量将达1222990.26万t。

Shelterbelt,as the main force of forest resources in China,has great ecological effects,and it’s also very important for China to play its huge carbon sink potential to cope with climate change and promote the realization of double carbon targets.This paper estimated the carbon storage and carbon density of shelterbelt in China based on the data of seven continuous forest inventory from 1984 to 2018,using the biomass expansion factor method.The results show that:(1)The area of shelterbelt in China has increased by 7804.70×10^(4) hm^(2),and the carbon storage has increased from 58507.76×104 tons in 1988 to 400899.93×10^(4) tons in 2018,with an average annual growth of 9782.63×10^(4) tons.The carbon density of shelterbelt had a rising-falling-rising trend,with a fluctuation range of 40.19 t/hm^(2)-48.03 t/hm^(2).(2)The contribution rate of carbon storage in middle-aged shelterbell forests was the largest,and the carbon density in over-mature shelterbelt was higher;Natural shelterbelt was the main contributor to the carbon storage of shelterbelt in China,and its carbon density increases greatly with the increase of forest age;The carbon density of artificial shelterbelt was much lower than that of natural shelterbelt,but the difference gradually decreases,and the total average carbon density of artificial shelterbelt showed a steady upward trend.(3)Southwest China was the main contributor to the carbon storage of shelterbelt in China,and its carbon storage have long been at the top of the six major regions,the total average carbon density of shelterbelt in the southeast coastal areas dominated by artificial shelterbelt was second only to that in North China.(4)It is predicted that in 2030,the carbon storage of shelterbelt in China will reach 597148.06×10^(4) tons,which is 196248.13×10^(4) tons more than that in 2018,by using GM(1,1)model;In 2060,the carbon storage of shelterbelt will reach 1222990.26×10^(4) tons.