危机事件影响下的区域旅游经济韧性时空分异研究——以新疆为例

Research on Spatio-Temporal Differences of Regional Tourism Economic Resilience with the Crisis Events:A Case Study of Xinjiang

自21世纪以来,各种危机事件频繁发生,旅游业持续健康发展对旅游经济韧性提出更迫切的需求。本研究通过专业机构、互联网、统计部门等多种数据来源,以月份为观测尺度,对在新冠疫情这一危机事件影响下新疆旅游经济的整体表现与韧性水平进行分析,并通过地理探测器剖析韧性水平空间分异的影响因素。研究发现:(1)在研究时段内,新疆旅游经济发展呈现出类似平稳期-复苏期-平稳期-抵抗期-复苏期-平稳期的特征,在平稳期和复苏期各地州市旅游经济韧性整体呈现“两头小中间大”的橄榄型结构,抵抗期则呈现“顶端小底端大”的金字塔结构。(2)新疆各地州市旅游经济韧性整体呈东西部较高、南北部较低的空间分布格局,地区间韧性分布不均衡,空间分布较分散。(3)因子探测结果表明产业多样化和疫情管控力度是新疆旅游经济韧性空间分异的核心影响因素,产业专业化则是重要影响因素,一般影响因素包括经济发展水平、旅游服务能力及公路运力等。

Since the beginning of the 21st century,various crisis events have occurred frequently,and the sustained and healthy development of tourism has put forward a more urgent need for the resilience of the tourism economy.Through various data sources such as professional institutions,the Internet,and statistical departments,this paper analyzed the overall performance and resilience level of tourism economy in Xinjiang under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis event on a monthly scale,and analyzed the influencing factors of spatial differentiation of resilience level through geographic detector.The findings are as follows.(1)During the studied period,the development of tourism economy in Xinjiang showed period characteristics of stable period,recovery period,stable period,resistance period,recovery period,stable period,and the resilience of tourism economy in various prefectures and cities in the stable period and recovery period showed an olive-shaped structure of“two small ends and large in the middle”,and the resistance period presented a pyramid structure of“small at the top and large at the low end”.(2)The overall resilience of tourism economy in various prefectures and cities in Xinjiang is higher in the east and west,and the spatial distribution in the north and south is low,and the resilience distribution between regions is uneven,and the spatial distribution is relatively scattered.(3)The factor detection results show that industrial diversification and epidemic control are the core influencing factors of the spatial differentiation of tourism economic resilience in Xinjiang,while industrial specialization is an important influencing factor,and the general influencing factors include the economic development level,tourism service capacity,road transportation capacity,etc.