基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的我国肉类产量预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Meat Yield Based on Grey GM(1,1)Model

为了科学分析我国肉类生产的发展趋势,以2016-2020年我国主要肉类产量为基础数据,通过DPS软件构建肉类产量GM(1,1)模型,并利用该模型预测我国2021-2024年的肉类总产量、猪肉、牛肉和羊肉产量的发展态势。结果表明,该模型的预测精度较高,结论可靠;我国肉类总产量与猪肉产量呈现下滑趋势,牛肉和羊肉产量仍处于稳步上升态势。鉴于此,为我国政府相关部门及养殖企业的科学决策提供有益参考。

To scientifically analyze the development trend of meat production in China,based on the data of main meat production in China from 2016 to 2020,the GM(1,1)model was constructed by DPS software,and the development trend of total meat production,pork,beef and mutton production in China from 2021 to 2024 was predicted and analyzed by using the model.The results indicated that the prediction accuracy of the model was high and the results were reliable.The total output of meat and pork showed a downward trend,while the output of beef and mutton was still on a steady rise.In view of this,it would provide useful reference for the scientific decision-making of relevant government departments and aquaculture enterprises.