新时代我国能源发展特征及中长期趋势展望

Characteristics of China's Energy Development in the New Era and Prospects for Medium and Long Term Trends

能源是经济社会发展的基础和动力源泉,对我国经济繁荣发展、人民生活改善和社会长治久安至关重要。党的十八大以来,我国能源发展进入新时代,能源发展方式由粗放向集约增长转变,消费和生产结构持续优化,利用效率大幅提升,技术创新水平不断提高,体制机制改革稳步推进,能源国际合作取得新突破,为我国经济社会持续健康发展提供了有力的支撑。展望中长期,我国经济将继续保持平稳发展、能源发展新动力不断积聚、绿色低碳转型持续推进、科技创新稳步发展、体制改革深水前行,能源消费增速逐步放缓,能源结构持续优化,能源消费总量预计2030年达到60.5亿吨标准煤,非化石能源消费占比超过25%以上,之后能源消费进入峰值平台期,预计2060年能源消费总量降至56亿吨标准煤,非化石能源消费占比超过80%。

Energy is the foundation and power source of economic and social development,which is crucial to the development of the country,the improvement of people's lives and the long-term stability of society.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,China's energy development has entered a new era,the energy development mode has changed from rough growth to intensive growth,the consumption and production structure has been continuously optimized,the utilization efficiency has been greatly improved,the level of technological innovation has been constantly improved,the reform of mechanism has been steadily promoted,and new breakthroughs have been made in energy international cooperation,which has provided a powerful support for the sustained and healthy economic and social development of China.Looking forward to the medium and long term,China's economy continues to maintain stable development,the new momentum of energy development continues to accumulate,the green and low-carbon transformation continues to promote,scientific and technological innovation is steadily developing,the institutional reform of energy will deepen.China's energy consumption growth rate is gradually slowing down,the energy structure continues to be optimized,the total energy consumption is expected to reach 6.05 billion tons of standard coal by 2030,the non-fossil energy consumption accounted for more than 25%of the total energy consumption.The energy consumption enters the peak platform period after 2030,and the total energy consumption drops to 5.6 billion tons of standard coal in 2060,with the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 80%.