经济增长目标与资本回报率——影响效应及机制识别

Economic Growth Target and the Return on Capital:Influence Effect and Mechanism Identification

在当前制度背景下,研究资本回报率对于正确理解和合理评估中国特有的高投资率现象具有重要意义。本文基于中国地级市样本,从各级政府广泛采用的经济增长目标管理这一综合性视角出发,考察了经济增长目标对资本回报率的影响。研究发现,地方政府设定过高增长目标会引起资本回报率的下降;这种抑制作用在财政分权程度高、金融业市场化程度低的地区以及金融危机期间表现得更加明显,但2013年之后明显减弱。机制分析表明,目标驱动下的政府主导型投资通过引起宏观投资规模过度和微观资本配置效率损失,造成资本回报率下降。本文为近年来中国出现的资本回报率回落和投资率高涨现象提供了解释,也为推动新旧动能转换和促进高质量发展提供了有益的政策启示。

Under the special institutional background of China,the return on capital is of great significance for correctly understanding and reasonably evaluating the unique phenomenon of high investment rate in China.Based on the practice of Chinese government's economic growth target management,this paper use data of prefecture level cities in China to examines the impact of economic growth target set by local governments on the return on capital.The empirical results show that:First,a higher economic growth target set by local governments will reduce the return on capital;Second,the negative impact of economic growth target on the return on capital is more obvious in cities with high degree of fiscal decentralization or low degree of financial marketization,and during the financial crisis,and has weakened significantly after the year of 2013;Third,the government-directed investment driven by the economics growth target will lead to the decline of the return on capital by causing over investment and the loss of capital allocation efficiency.The research conclusion of this paper provides a reasonable explanation for the decline of return on capital and the rise of investment rate in China in recent years,and also provides policy implications for speeding up the replacement of the old drivers of growth and promoting high-quality economic development.