传统基础设施建设还能提升城市全要素生产率吗——基于223个城市市政基础设施的研究

Can Traditional Infrastructure Promote the Cities'Total Factor Productivity?--Based on a Study of Municipal Infrastructure in 223 Cities

世界经济深度衰退,中国经济下行压力不断加大,传统基础设施建设还能否提升全要素生产率(TFP),进而为实现经济高质量发展提供强力后劲及长久支撑是值得深入研究的问题。本文用资本存量衡量传统基础设施建设情况,采用永续盘存法测算了样本城市的传统基础设施资本存量;采用基于投入松弛的TFP指数测算了样本城市的TFP,并基于2003—2019年的城市面板数据分别构建静态面板模型和动态面板模型,实证检验了传统基础设施资本存量与TFP之间的关系。研究发现:(1)传统基础设施资本存量与TFP之间不是单调的线性关系,而是呈现出显著的“倒U型”关系,当传统基础设施资本存量达到一定的阈值,将不能再对TFP带来提升效应。2019年我国多数(64%)城市的传统基础设施资本存量已经达到该阈值,因此,从能否有利于提升TFP角度来看,传统基础设施建设难以继续为提升TFP提供有力支撑,不宜再进行大规模扩张。(2)传统基础设施资本存量与TFP的关系呈现出区域和城市级别异质性。中西部地区城市和部分地级城市二者之间的“倒U型”关系不显著,原因在于传统基础设施建设依然存在区域间、行政级别间的不平衡,部分地级城市,尤其是中西部地区的地级城市,传统基础设施资本依然没有达到阈值,因此应制定差异化的传统基础设施建设政策,补齐短板。(3)即使大多数城市传统基础设施建设已经达到阈值,但依然存在各种“城市病”,因此应优化传统基础设施资本结构,在做好普遍性更新改造、补足折旧的基础上,重点支持传统基础设施建设的薄弱环节,提升基础设施建设效率。

The world economy is in deep recession and the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing.Whether traditional infrastructure can provide strong stamina and long-term support for the high-quality economic development worth of in-depth study.In this paper,we use PIM to measure the capital stock of 10 types of traditional infrastructure,which represents the construction of traditional infrastructure,and we use the input-slacked TPF index to measure TFP.Then we construct the static panel model and the dynamic panel model respectively to empirically test the relationship between the capital stock of traditional infrastructure and TFP.We found that:(1)the relationship between traditional infrastructure capital stock and TFP is not a mono-tonic linear relationship,but a significant"inverted U-shaped"relationship.When the traditional infrastructure capital stock reaches a certain threshold,it will no longer be able to improve TFP.In 2019,most cities have reached this threshold.Therefore,from the perspective of whether it can promote TFP,it is difficult for traditional infrastructure to continue to provide strong support for high-quality economic development.So it is not appropriate for further large-scale expansion of traditional infrastructure.(2)The relationship between traditional infrastructure capital stock and TFP presents regional and city-level heterogeneity.The"inverted U-shaped"relationship between cities in the central and western regions and prefecture-level cities is not significant,because the imbalance between regions and administrative levels still exists in traditional infrastructure con-struction.The traditional infrastructure capital scale of some prefecture-level cities,especially prefecture-level cities in the central and western regions,still has not reached the threshold,so differentiated policies should be formulated for traditional infrastructure construction.(3)Although most cities have reached the threshold,they still have various"urban diseases".Therefore,the capital structure of infrastructure should be optimized,on the basis of universal re-newal and transformation,focusing on supporting the weak links of new infrastructure and tradi-tional infrastructure,and improving the efficiency of infrastructure construction.