上海市户籍人口基本医疗保险参保人口预测分析

Forecast Analysis of Insured Population of Registered Residence Population in Shanghai

目的预测上海市基本医疗保险参保人口变化,分析其对医疗保险可能产生的影响。方法依据统计年鉴、人口普查与抽样调查报告,根据常住人口中户籍人口构成筛选出户籍人口,运用拟合指数曲线预测户籍人口数量变化,并结合各年户籍人口中参保人口构成变化趋势,分析2025年各类参保人口变动情况。结果上海市户籍人口老龄化程度逐步提高,至2025年时,60岁及上老年人占比将达到37.32%;户籍城镇在职职工医保参保人数逐年减少,年均减少1.06%,离退休参保人数逐年增加,年均增加1.63%;城乡居民基本医保参保主体为非劳动年龄人口,至2025年时,占比为82.54%。结论户籍人口老龄化加重将影响城镇职工、城乡居民医保支付的可持续性,拓宽医保基金来源渠道,提高政府对城乡居民医保基金补贴额,是保持医保基金可持续性的有效手段。

Objective To predict the population change of basic medical insurance in Shanghai and analyze its possible impact on medical insurance.Methods Based on the statistical yearbook,census and sampling survey,the registered residence population was screened.According to the changing trend of the insured population in each registered residence population,registered residence registered population was predicted by fitting exponential curve and the changes of various insured population in 2025 were analyzed.Results The aging of registered residence population in Shanghai increased gradually.By 2025,the proportion of 60 years old and elderly people would reach 37.32%.The number of insured workers in registered residence had decreased year by year,with an average annual reduction of 1.06%,and the number of retirees had increased year by year,with an average annual increase of 1.63%.The main body of basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents was the population of non working age,accounting for 82.54%by 2025.Conclusion The aging of registered residence population will affect the sustainability of medical insurance payment of urban workers and urban and rural residents.Broadening the sources of medical insurance funds,and improving the government's subsidy for medical insurance funds for urban and rural residents are effective means to maintain the sustainability of medical insurance funds.