基于集对分析的四川天然气供应安全评价分析

SPA-based evaluating security of Sichuan's natural-gas supply

天然气作为一种低碳、清洁的优质化石能源,是实施低碳转型的最佳选择之一,其供应安全关乎国家能源安全。四川拥有多个大型天然气气田和丰富的非常规天然气资源,未来天然气需求量必将呈稳步增长态势。为了促进四川经济社会持续健康发展、科学制定天然气规划方案、保障四川能源安全,基于可获得、可支付、效率、研发四个维度,构建四川天然气供应安全评价指标体系,运用集对分析方法构建四川天然气供应安全评价模型,并对四川天然气供应安全的等级进行确定。研究结果表明:①四川天然气供应安全评价等级2017年为Ⅲ级,2018年升至Ⅱ级,2019-2021年上升为Ⅰ级;②四川天然气供应安全指数的联系度由2017年的-0.2上升至2021年的0.219,呈稳步上升趋势。研究结论认为:四川天然气供应安全水平将逐步提高,建设多元化供应体系、完善天然气价格机制、建立多层次储气调峰体系等措施是提高四川天然气供应安全水平的有效措施。

As a sort of clean fossil energy with low carbon and high quality,natural gas serves as one of the best choices to implement low-carbon transformation,and its supply security is about energy security in China.There exist numerous large gasfields in Sichuan with abundant unconventional gas resources.And the gas demand will grow steadily in the fu⁃ture.In order to promote the sustainable and healthy development of Sichuan's economy and society,scientifically formu⁃late natural-gas planning schemes,and ensure Sichuan's energy security,an evaluation index system has been developed for Sichuan'natural-gas supply security from four aspects of availability,affordability,efficiency and research&develop⁃ment.Furthermore,an evaluation model was also built through one approach called set pair analysis(SPA).Additionally,the security level was determined.Results show that(i)the supply security in Sichuan was evaluated as Level III in 2017,upgraded to level II in 2018,and then to Level I in 2019-2021;and(ii)the linkage degree of Sichuan's natural-gas sup⁃ply security index was increased from-0.2 in 2017 to 0.219 in 2021,showing the steady growth.It is deemed that the se⁃curity level of Sichuan's natural-gas supply will be gradually improved,and the effective measures for this improvement in⁃clude constructing a diversified supply system,perfecting natural-gas price mechanisms,and establishing a multi-level sys⁃tem in gas storage and peak shaving.