宁夏北部引黄灌区玉米生长季气候变化及其对气候产量影响

Climate Change in the Growing Season of Maize in Northern Ningxia Yellow Irrigation Area and its Impact on Climate Yield

【目的】为明确气候变化对宁夏北部引黄灌区玉米产量的影响,合理有效利用气候资源提供科学依据,保障粮食安全。【方法】选取1961—2020年气象站点数据和产量数据,结合气候倾向率,M—K趋势分析,自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型等数理统计方法,分析玉米生长季气候变化特征,研究了引黄灌区玉米生长季各气候要素与玉米产量的关系。【结果】1)各个区域最高温、最低温、平均温均呈现明显上升趋势。除陶乐呈下降趋势外,其他地区大气压均呈升高趋势。风速和日照时数大致呈现西南高东北低。各地区降雨量变化趋势均不显著,除中宁、惠农呈减少趋势外,大部分地区降雨量呈升高趋势。各地区的相对湿度均呈显著下降趋势。2)引黄灌区各个市(县)玉米单产总体均呈上升趋势,用5年滑动平均法拟合出的趋势产量能较好地反映出引黄灌区各市(县)玉米产量增长特征,从而进一步反映因生产力和国家政策变化等因素引起的实际产量变化情况。在空间分布上,产量中心虽有部分年份出现南移现象,但整体仍保持向东北方向移动的趋势。3)最高温、最低温、平均温、相对湿度是影响引黄灌区玉米产量的重要因素,风速次之。【结论】宁夏北部引黄灌区各气象因素对不同地区玉米产量的影响效应有正有负,程度也各不相同,因此,应根据当地实际情况,制定科学的增产对策,以达到增产目的。

[Objective]This study aims to clarify the impact of climate change on maize yield in the Yellow River Irrigation Area of northern Ningxia,thus providing a scientific basis for rational and effective use of climate resources,as well as ensure food security.[Methods]This study analyzed the climate change characteristics of maize growing season and studied the relationship between climate factors and maize yield in the Yellow River Irrigation Area by combining the data of meteorological stations and yield data from 1961 to 2020,and combining climatic tendency rate,M-K trend analysis,autoregressive distribution lag(ARDL)model and other mathematical and statistical methods[.Results]The results showed that 1)the maximum temperature,minimum temperature and average temperature in each region showed a significant upward trend.The atmospheric pressure showed an increasing trend in all regions except Taole,which showed a decreasing trend.Wind speed and sunshine hours were generally high in southwest and low in northeast.The change trend of rainfall in each region was not significant.In addition to the decreasing trend of Zhongning and Huinong,the rainfall in most areas showed an increasing trend.The relative humidity of each region showed a significant downward trend(.2)The overall maize yield in all cities(counties)in the Yellow River Irrigation Area showed an increasing trend,and the trend yield fitted by the 5a sliding average method could reflect better the growth characteristics of maize yield in all cities(counties)in the Yellow River Irrigation Area,thus reflecting the actual yield changes caused by factors such as productivity and national policy changes.In terms of spatial distribution,although the yield center has shifted southward in some years,the overall trend still maintained a northeastern direction.(3)The maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average temperature,and relative humidity were the most important factors affecting maize yield in the Yellow River Irrigation Area,followed by wind speed.[Conclusion]The effect of each meteorological factor on maize yield in the northern Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation Area has both positive and negative effects in different areas,and the degree is also different,Therefore,scientific countermeasures to increase yield should be developed according to the actual local situation to achieve yield increase.