“双循环”背景下国家粮食安全战略研究

National Food Security Strategy Against the Backdrop of Domestic and International Dual Circulation

粮食事关国计民生,粮食安全是国家安全的重要基础。在“双循环”新发展格局下,厘清粮食安全的现状及挑战、提出科学有效的粮食发展战略路径是支撑国家粮食安全并实现稳定发展的重要内容。本文基于国家宏观统计数据,分析了“双循环”背景下我国粮食安全的基本形势,辨识了粮食安全面临的挑战和风险;在开展“双循环”背景下国家粮食安全宏观研判的基础上,系统提出了国家粮食安全的思路与目标、战略路径、重大工程建议及对策建议。研究发现,当前我国粮食存在供需缺口大、对外依存度高、饲用蛋白进口量大等现象,同时面临国内饲用蛋白替代难、水土资源环境硬约束紧、农民种粮积极性不高、粮食安全体系抗风险能力不足等多项挑战。可通过加快部署粮食产能提升示范、新型蛋白资源替代、绿色低碳种养循环、国际粮食资源开发与利用、未来食物研发示范等系列重大工程,辅以建立粮食安全保障体系、适度扩大耕地面积、持续提高大豆油料产量、稳步恢复南方多熟制、持续推进北方轮作制等发展策略,助力国家粮食安全。

Food concerns national livelihood and food security is vital for national security.In the context of“dual circulation”(i.e.,domestic and international economic circulation)in China,clarifying the basic situation and challenges of food security and exploring effective strategies for food development are crucial for ensuring stable national development.Using national macro statistics,we first analyzed the basic situation of food security in China and the challenges it faces in the context of“dual circulation”.Subsequently,we made a macro study on national food security and proposed the goals,strategic paths,major projects,and feasible countermeasures for ensuring national food security.Our study indicates that there exists a large gap between food supply and demand,a high degree of external dependence,and a large amount of imports of feed protein in China,as well as challenges including the difficulty in substituting feed protein domestically,rigidness of environmental restrictions on soil and water resources,low incentives for farmers to grow grains,and insufficient risk-resistant capabilities of the food security system.Moreover,we proposed a series of major projects,such as demonstration for upgrading grain production capacity,new protein resource substitution,green and low carbon planting and breeding circulation,development and utilization of international grain resources,and research and development demonstration of future foods.Several development strategies were further suggested,including the establishment of a food security guarantee system,moderate expansion of cultivated land areas,sustained increase in oil-bearing plant production,steady resumption of a multiple cropping system in South China,and sustained advancement of a rotational cropping system in North China.