基于食物消费变化的种养供需预测及结构调整路径研究

Supply-Demand Forecast and Structure Adjustment Paths of Planting and Breeding Industries Based on Changes in Food Consumption

基于食物消费变化开展种养供需预测及结构调整,对坚守粮食安全底线、保障大食物供给总体安全具有重要意义。本文在系统梳理我国食物消费结构特征、种养发展态势的基础上,定量测算了与种养密切相关的口粮、饲料粮、粗饲料的需求端/供给端数据,获得了供需平衡分析结果。针对性提出了调整方向:重点扩大蛋白饲料作物、油料作物和优质牧草种植,稳定猪禽、大力发展草食畜牧业,强化大食物观理念、多途径开发食物来源。阐述了实现路径:优化种植结构和调整区域布局,发展种养结合循环农业,构建多元化食物供给体系,全面提升农业科技创新能力。研究建议,构建与大食物观相适应的政策体系和技术支撑体系,构建粮食产业资源配置向产地倾斜的政策体系,构建区域协同发展机制,调整口粮、饲料粮和饲草种植政策和统计口径,更好保障国家粮食安全。

Conducting supply-demand prediction and structural adjustment of planting and breeding industries based on changes in food consumption is crucial for ensuring food security of China.This study analyzes the characteristics of food consumption structure and the development trends of planting and breeding industries in China and estimates the demand and supply data of staple grains,feed grains,and forage crops closely related to the planting and breeding industries.The analysis results of supply-demand balance are obtained.Targeted adjustment directions are proposed,including expanding the planting of protein feed crops,oil-bearing crops,and high-quality forage crops;stabilizing the production of livestock and poultry;vigorously developing grass-based animal husbandry;promoting an all-encompassing approach to food;and exploring multiple sources of food.The study also elaborates on the implementation paths:optimizing planting structure by adjusting regional layout,developing circular agriculture that integrates crop farming and animal husbandry,constructing a diversified food supply system,and comprehensively enhancing innovation capabilities regarding agricultural technologies.To better ensure national food security,we proposes to improve the policy and technological support systems,allocate agricultural resources toward production areas,establish a regional collaboration mechanism,and adjust policies and statistical standards for staple grain,feed grain,and forage crop production.