虚拟耕地资源视阈下中国农产品贸易政策实施效果评价及路径优化研究

Effect Evaluation and Path Optimization of China's Agricultural Trade Policy from the Perspective of Virtual Cultivated Land Resources

通过对中国农产品贸易中隐含的虚拟耕地资源进行量化分析,运用内生经济增长模型对虚拟耕地视阈下中国农产品贸易政策实施效果进行尝试探索。研究结果显示:中国农产品虚拟耕地资源净进口呈显著增加态势,其中具有土地资源密集型的油料、谷物、棉花、糖料虚拟耕地资源净进口占比分别为80%、7%、2.27%、0.09%,具有劳动密集型的农产品虚拟耕地资源呈净出口,蔬菜不断增加,水果呈“V”型特征,茶叶在400千公顷左右。虚拟耕地视阈下的中国农产品贸易长期宏观经济政策效果整体上占据主导地位,能够抵消部分短期宏观经济政策的波动性;短期宏观经济政策具有灵活性,可以有益弥补长期宏观政策效果的滞后性,但是虚拟耕地资源的进口增加可能会使得经济增长出现弱化效应。为将虚拟耕地资源进口变为实践,中国亟待从调整和发挥好农产品进口支持政策等方面寻求新突破。

As a factor endowment resource,virtual cultivated land resources connect different production ends in agricultural trade,which makes the nature and connotation of import trade change,and gradually becomes one of the research hot topics.A correct understanding of the implementation effect of China's agricultural trade policy from the perspective of virtual cultivated land resources is related to the formulation and implementation of agricultural opening-up policy,and has important practical significance for the realization of high-quality agricultural development.Based on the quantitative analysis of the virtual cultivated land resources implied in China's agricultural trade,this paper attempts to explore the implementation effect of China's agricultural trade policy from the perspective of virtual cultivated land by using the endogenous economic growth model.The results show that the net import of China's virtual cultivated land resources of agricultural products is increasing significantly,among which the net import of oil,grain,cotton and sugar virtual cultivated land resources with land resource intensive accounts for 80%,7%,2.27%and 0.09%respectively.The virtual cultivated land resources of labor-intensive agricultural products are net export.Vegetables are increasing,fruits are"V"shaped,and tea is about 400 thousand hectares.From the perspective of virtual cultivated land,the long-term macroeconomic policy effect of China's agricultural trade occupies a dominant position as a whole,which can offset the volatility of some short-term macroeconomic policies.The short-term macroeconomic policy is flexible and can make up for the lag of the long-term macroeconomic policy effect.However,the increase in the import of virtual cultivated land resources may weaken the economic growth.In order to turn the import of virtual arable land resources into practice,China urgently needs to seek new breakthroughs in adjusting and leveraging agricultural product import support policies.