基于灰色计量经济模型的农产品物流发展影响因素研究—以H省为例

Research on Influencing Factors of Agricultural Product Logistics Development Based on Grey Econometric Model——Take H Province as an example

本文以H省为研究对象,采用灰色计量经济模型,从农产品物流从业人员、物流基础设施、物流需求、物流配送能力、物流信息化水平、物流运作水平、H省经济发展水平、农产品物流人才培养八个方面进行农产品物流能力评价指标体系的构建。研究表明,H省农产品的物流人才培养水平在2011—2020年良好,支撑农产品物流能力的提升。农产品物流能力迅速发展的重要保证是物流运作水平、农产品物流需求、H省经济发展水平运行良好,物流业从业人员对H省农产品物流能力有效提升起到制约作用,除从业人员数、公路里程外,物流信息化水平灰色关联值均较小,这表明其对农产品物流能力具有较小影响。

This paper takes H Province as the research object,and studies the development of agricultural product logistics in this province.The grey econometric model is used to build the evaluation index system of agricultural product logistics capacity from eight aspects:agricultural product logistics employees,logistics infrastructure,logistics demand,logistics distribution capacity,logistics informatization level,logistics operation level,economic development level of H Province,and agricultural product logistics talent training.The research shows that the logistics talent training level of agricultural products in H Province is good from 2011 to 2020,Support the improvement of agricultural product logistics capacity.An important guarantee for the rapid development of agricultural product logistics capacity is that the logistics operation level,agricultural product logistics demand and the economic development level of H Province operate well.Employees in the logistics industry have played a restrictive role in the effective improvement of agricultural product logistics capacity in H Province.In addition to the number of employees and highway mileage,the gray correlation value of logistics informatization level is small,which indicates that it has a small impact on the logistics capacity of agricultural products.