摘要
评价油气开发项目投资效果的指标较多,单纯的经济指标如净现值、内部收益率、投资回收期和投资回报率,以及储量和产量等技术指标,都只能从某个侧面反映项目投资效果,难以综合评价海外油气开发项目的投资效果。结合层次分析法和灰色关联分析法,构建一套投资效果的综合评价方法。采用层次分析法从24个指标中筛选出6个评价指标,并确定各评价指标的权重。构建灰色关联度模型计算各个评价项目的关联系数,按关联系数进行排序,确定各个海外油气开发项目投资效果的相对优劣,为未来中国的石油公司投资海外油气开发项目提供有益的指导和参考。
There are multiple indicators to evaluate investment effectiveness of oil and gas development projects.Pure economic indicators such as net present value,internal rate of return,payback period,and return on investment,as well as technical indica-tors such as reserves and production,can only reflect the project's investment effectiveness from a specific perspective and make it difficult to comprehensively evaluate the investment effectiveness of overseas oil and gas development projects.A comprehen-sive evaluation method for investment effectiveness is proposed by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the Grey Relational Analysis(GRA)methods.AHP is used to select six evaluation indicators from 24 indicators and determine the weights of each evaluation indicator.The Grey Relational Analysis model is constructed to calculate the correlation coefficients of each evaluation item,and the investment effectiveness of various overseas oil and gas development projects is ranked based on these coefficients.It provides useful guidance and reference for future investments overseas to the oil and gas companies in China.
作者
黄山明
蒋丽维
HUANG Shanming;JIANG Liwei(Petroleum Exploration&Production Research Institute of Sinopec,Beijing 100083,China;PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《世界石油工业》
2023年第4期17-22,共6页
World Petroleum Industry
基金
中国石油化工股份有限公司科技部项目“中石化海外油气资产投资优化模型及方案研究”(P18085)。
关键词
油气开发
层次分析法
灰关联法
投资效果
综合评价
oil and gas development
analytic hierarchy process
grey relational analysis
investment effectiveness
comprehensive evaluation
