地区电网夏季大负荷特性的分析及预测研究

Analysis and Prediction Study of Summer Heavy Load Characteristics of Regional Power Grid

近年来夏季气温屡创新高,在“保民生、保供电”政策方针的指导下,地区电网中夏季大负荷的特性分析及预测作为电网方式安排及运行调度的基础,受到电力系统专家和学者的广泛关注。文章分析了负荷与温度的相关性,对最大负荷与平均温度的关系曲线进行了有效拟合,进而通过负荷比较法,得到了地区电网夏季大负荷期间的降温负荷。最后,采用“全口径增长需求”和“全口径平滑增长需求”两种方法合理预测了地区电网夏季大负荷期间的最大负荷。

With the summer temperature hitting new highs in recent years,under the guidance of the policy of“ensuring people’s livelihood and power supply”,the characteristic analysis and prediction of summer large load in the regional power grid,as the basis of power grid arrangement and operation dispatch,has been widely concerned by power system experts and scholars.This paper first analyzes the correlation between load and temperature,and effectively fits the relationship curve between maximum load and average temperature.Then through the load comparison method,the cooling load of the regional power grid during the summer period.Finally,two methods of“full diameter growth demand”and“full diameter smooth growth demand”are adopted to reasonably predict the maximum load of regional power grid during the summer period.