财政分权与社会保障:新结构经济学视角

Fiscal Decentralization and Social Security:A New Structural Economic Perspective

走和平发展道路的中国式现代化需要有效的社会保障体系支撑,而社会保障又与财政制度安排息息相关。其中,财政分权是影响社会保障支出水平的重要因素,但是关于二者的具体关系,已有文献并未形成统一共识。基于新结构经济学视角构建理论框架分析后发现:财政分权对社会保障支出水平的影响取决于“收入效应”和“替代效应”的大小及方向,而这两种效应又与经济发展阶段相关。由此提出理论假说:现阶段我国财政分权对社会保障支出水平具有显著的负向影响,但这一影响将随着经济发展水平的提升而减弱。随后,基于1998—2020年中国省级面板数据,采用双固定效应模型进行实证检验,结果证实了上述理论假设。经过内生性、动态性和稳健性检验后,结论依然稳健。此外,考虑产业分工造成的差异:产业上游省份受到中央转移支付的冲击,财政分权对社会保障支出的负面影响较小;产业下游省份结果与全样本回归一致;“三省一市”处于中高收入过渡阶段,负效应不显著。进一步地,考虑地区发展水平差异:中西部地区财政分权对社会保障支出有负面影响,而东部地区由于收入水平较高,该影响不显著。基于此,要坚持推进财政改革,提高财政分权度;优化地方政府政绩考核体系,适当加大“民生”指标的考核权重。

Chinese-style modernization that takes the path of peaceful development needs the support of an effective social security system,and social security is closely related to the arrangement of the fiscal system.Among them,fiscal decentralization is an important factor affecting the level of social security expenditure,but there is no consensus in the literature on the specific relationship between the two.After constructing a theoretical framework from the perspective of new structural economics,it is found that the impact of fiscal decentralization on the level of social security expenditure depends on the size and direction of the“income effect”and the“substitution effect”,and these two effects are related to the stage of economic development.Therefore,the theoretical hypothesis is proposed.At this stage,China’s fiscal decentralization has a significant negative impact on the level of social security expenditure,but this impact will weaken with the improvement of economic development level.Subsequently,based on the provincial panel data in China from 1998 to 2020,the double fixed-effect model was used for empirical testing,and the results confirmed the above theoretical hypothesis.After endogeneity,dynamism and robustness tests,the conclusion is still robust.In addition,considering the differences caused by industrial division of labor,the upstream provinces of the industry are affected by central transfer payments,and fiscal decentralization has less negative impact on social security expenditure.The results of the downstream provinces are consistent with the regression of the whole sample.“Three provinces and one city”are in the transition stage of medium and high income,and the negative effect is not significant.Further,considering regional differences in development levels,fiscal decentralization in the central and western regions has a negative impact on social security expenditures,while the eastern regions have less significant impact due to higher income levels.Based on this,we must persist in promoting fiscal reform and improve the degree of fiscal decentralization,optimize the performance appraisal system of local governments,and appropriately increase the assessment weight of“people’s livelihood”indicators.