基于SD模型的大学生返乡就业仿真研究——以浙江省为例

Simulation Study on College Students’ Returning Employment Based on System Dynamics——A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

[目的]准确识别大学生返乡就业的动力机制及影响因素,以期为加强农村基层人才队伍建设,助推实施全面乡村振兴战略提供决策参考。[方法]通过厘清高校子系统、农村子系统、社会子系统、经济子系统以及文化子系统之间各要素的因果反馈关系,构建描述大学生返乡就业行为的系统动力学模型,并以浙江省为例,基于Vensim平台进行仿真模拟。[结果]结果显示,浙江省返乡就业大学生人数从2015—2030年呈现逐年增长态势,尤其在2025—2030年,返乡就业人数增幅最为明显。其中,农村对高素质劳动力需求、政府支持性政策、农村创新创业氛围是影响大学生返乡就业的主要因素。[结论]加强对农村产业转型升级的关注,结合农村发展实际,出台鼓励大学生返乡就业的兜底性、保障性政策,建议政府颁布支持性、倾斜性政策引导技术型、科技型企业或平台在农村落地,瞄准乡村数字产业,提升乡村建设智慧化水平,营造良好的农业数字市场交易环境。

[Objective] To accurately identify the dynamic mechanism and influencing factors of college students' employment in their hometowns,so as to provide decision-making reference for strengthening the construction of rural grassroots talents and promoting the implementation of the comprehensive rural revitalization strategy.[Method] By clarifying the causal feedback relationship among various elements of the university subsystem,the rural subsystem,the social subsystem,the economic subsystem and the cultural subsystem,a system dynamics model describing the employment behavior of college students returning home was constructed.Taking Zhejiang Province as an example,the simulation was carried out based on Vensim platform.[Result] The results show that the number of returning college students in Zhejiang Province is increasing year by year from 2015 to 2030,especially from 2025 to 2030.Among them,the demand for high-quality labor in rural areas,the government's supportive policies and the atmosphere of innovation and entrepreneurship in rural areas are the main factors that affect the employment of college students in their hometowns.[Conclusion] We should pay more attention to the transformation and upgrading of rural industries,combine the rural development reality,and introduce all-inclusive and guaranteed policies to encourage college students to return to their hometowns for employment.It is suggested that the government issue supportive and inclined policies to guide technology-based and technology-based enterprises or platforms to land in rural areas,aim at rural digital industries,improve the intelligent level of rural construction,and create a good trading environment of agricultural digital market.