2023年上半年中国化肥市场形势回顾和后期展望

China's Fertilizer Market Situation in the First Half of 2023 and Its Future Prospects

化肥是农业生产的重要基础物资,保障化肥供应和价格基本稳定对保护农民种粮积极性、维护国家粮食安全大局具有重要意义。科学研判化肥市场形势,是化肥保供稳价的重要举措。2023年上半年国内化肥市场供应总量充足,春耕用肥、夏季用肥需求整体有保障,国际、国内市场化肥价格均低于上年同期,但仍处于历史高位,化肥进出口均明显增加。后期国内夏季追肥进一步释放,但总体需求较弱,加上原材料价格下滑与国际市场化肥价格下跌,预计国内市场化肥价格会以下跌为主,但受局部需求和库存消化、国际需求影响,局部地区、个别品种价格会出现阶段性小幅波动上涨;进入四季度,随着秋冬种陆续展开,化肥价格可能会出现季节性上涨,但涨幅有限。基于此,需关注产业供应链与国际市场对化肥供需、价格产生的影响,后期应进一步加强国内外化肥市场的监测调度、长效保供稳价机制的建立、新产品的研发与农户用肥的指导。

Fertilizer is an important basic material for agricultural production.Ensuring the basic stability of fertilizer supply and prices is of great significance for protecting farmers' enthusiasm for grain production and maintaining the overall situation of national food security.Scientific analysis of the fertilizer market situation is an important measure to ensure supply and stable prices of fertilizers.In the first half of 2023,the total supply of domestic fertilizer market was sufficient,and the overall demand for spring and summer fertilizers was guaranteed.The prices of fertilizer in both international and domestic markets were lower than the same period last year,but still at historical highs,with a significant increase in fertilizer imports and exports.In the later stage,domestic summer top dressing will be further released,but overall domestic demand is weak.Coupled with the decline in raw material prices and the decline in fertilizer prices in the international market,it is expected that fertilizer prices in the domestic market will mainly decline.However,due to local demand and inventory digestion,as well as international demand,some regions and individual varieties will experience slight fluctuations and increases in stages;entering the fourth quarter,as autumn and winter planting continue,fertilizer prices may experience seasonal increases,but the increase is limited.Based on this,the impact of the industrial supply chain and international market on the supply and demand of fertilizers should be paid attention to,as well as the prices.In the future,the monitoring and scheduling of domestic and foreign fertilizer markets should be further strengthened,mechanisms of long-term supply and price stability should be established,new products should be developed,and guidance for farmers to use fertilizers should be provided.