农业碳排放效率测度及空间溢出效应

Measurement and Spatial Spillover Effect of Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency——Analysis based on spatial Dupin Model

基于2000—2021年的原始数据,采用EBM-GML模型测算我国农业碳排放效率,引入空间莫兰指数,分析农业碳排放效率的动态空间演变过程和空间关联性,进一步采用空间杜宾模型探讨农业碳排放效率的影响因素和溢出效应。研究表明,我国农业碳排放效率整体上处于上升状态,具有较强碳减排能力;各省份农业碳排放效率存在较大差异,空间上具有较强的关联性;农业碳排放效率具有正向的空间溢出效应,对邻省的农业投资强度、有效灌溉率和农业经济发展水平具有正向的空间溢出效应,对作物种植结构具有负向的空间溢出效应。应制定差异化低碳农业发展政策,加强农业投资强度和提升农业经济发展水平,协调均衡推进低碳农业化进程。

Based on the original data from 2000 to 2021,this paper uses EBM-GML model to measure the agricultural carbon emission efficiency.The spatial Moran index is introduced to analyze the dynamic spatial evolution process and spatial correlation of agricultural carbon emission efficiency.Furthermore,the spatial Dubin model is adopted to explore the influencing factors and spillover effects of agricultural carbon emission efficiency.The main conclusions are as follows:Overall,Chinese agricultural carbon emission efficiency is on the rise,with strong carbon emission reduction capacity.There are great differences in agricultural carbon emission efficiency among provinces,and there is a strong correlation in space.Agricultural carbon emission efficiency has a positive spatial spillover effect on agricultural investment intensity,effective irrigation rate and agricultural economic development level in neighboring provinces,and has a negative spatial spillover effect on crop planting structure.The paper puts forward countermeasures such as formulating differentiated low-carbon agricultural development policies,strengthening agricultural investment intensity and improving agricultural economic development level,and promoting low-carbon agriculture in a coordinated and balanced way.