基于空间杜宾模型的农业高质量发展空间效应及影响因素研究——以陕西省为例

Study on the Spatial Effect and Influencing Factors of Agricultural High-quality Development Based on Spatial Durbin Model:A case study of Shanxi Province

农业高质量发展是全面推进乡村振兴的重要内容。陕西特色农业发展成效显著,评估陕西农业高质量发展的空间差异,分析其影响因素,对于实现农业更高质量发展、完善政策支持提供参考依据。本文运用空间杜宾模型从经济和社会两个维度,利用陕西各市2003-2019年面板数据,实证分析陕西农业高质量发展的空间效应及其影响因素,发现:市场化、信息化水平的提升对本地市农业的高质量发展存在显著正向影响;城镇化水平的提升对邻近地市的影响显著为负,信息化水平的提升对邻近地市的影响显著为正。从空间杜宾模型的效应分解来看,城镇化水平的直接效应显著为正,其间接效应显著为负,而总效应为负,进一步印证说明城镇化水平的提升对本地市农业产业的发展有促进作用,而对邻近地市农业产业的发展呈现负面作用。市场化水平的直接效应和间接效应均为正,说明了市场化对陕西各地市农业产业的发展均具有促进作用。

High-quality development of agriculture is an important part of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization.The development of Shaanxi characteristic agriculture has achieved significant results.Assessing the spatial differences in agricultural high-quality development in Shaanxi and analyzing its influencing factors can provide a reference basis for achieving high-quality agricultural development and improving policy support.By the panel data of cities of Shanxi province in the period 2003 to 2019,this paper used the spatial Dubin model to analyze the spatial effects and influencing factors of high-quality development of agriculture in Shaanxi from the economic and social dimensions,and found that the promotion of marketization and informatization had a significant positive impact on the high-quality development of agriculture in this region;The improvement of urbanization level had a significant negative impact on adjacent areas,while the improvement of informatization level had a significant positive impact on adjacent areas.From the effect decomposition of the spatial Dubin model,the direct effect of urbanization was significantly positive,while the indirect effect was significantly negative,and the total effect was negative,It further proved that the improvement of urbanization level can promote the development of local agricultural industry,while it had a negative effect on the development of agricultural industry in neighboring areas.The direct effect and indirect effect of the level of marketization were both positive,indicating that marketization can promote the development of regional agricultural industry.